Abstract
This paper describes seismic risk, load combination, and probabilistic risk problems in power plant reliability, and it suggests applications of extreme value theory.
Seismic risk analysis computes the probability of power plant failure in an earthquake and the resulting risk. Components fail if their peak responses to an earthquake exceed their strengths. Dependent stochastic processes represent responses, and peak responses are maxima. A Boolean function of component failures and survivals represents plant failure.
Load combinations analysis computes the cdf of the peak of the superposition of stochastic processes that represent earthquake and operating loads. It also computes the probability of pipe fracture due to crack growth, a Markov process, caused by loads. Pipe fracture is an absorbing state.
Probabilistic risk analysis computes the cdf’s of probabilities which represent uncertainty. These cdf’s are induced by randomizing parameters of cdf’s and by randomizing properties of stochastic processes such as initial crack size distributions, marginal cdf’s, and failure criteria.
This work was supported by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission under a memorandum of understanding with U. S. Department of Energy.
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© 1984 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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George, L.L. (1984). Probability Problems in Seismic Risk and Load Combinations for Power Plants. In: de Oliveira, J.T. (eds) Statistical Extremes and Applications. NATO ASI Series, vol 131. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3069-3_29
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3069-3_29
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