Robust Statistical Methods to Discriminate Extreme Events in Geoelectrical Precursory Signals: Implications with Earthquake Prediction

  • V. Cuomo
  • G. Di Bello
  • V. Lapenna
  • S. Piscitelli
  • L. Telesca
  • M. Macchiato
  • C. Serio
Chapter

Abstract

In this study, we propose a robust statistical method to discern anomalous patterns in geoelectrical time series measured in a seismic area of the Southern Apennine chain. First, a filtering procedure to remove seasonal effects related to meteo-climatic fluctuations was carried out. Then, we selected an autoregressive model able to describe the time fluctuations of geoelectrical signals and propose a method to obtain an objective estimate of probability of occurrence for each extreme event detected in the time series. Our applications in Southern Italy allow us to hypothesize that the ambiguity of short-term prediction is within the complicated dynamics of the physical process responsible for electrical anomalies observed on the earth’s surface.

Key words

Geoelectrical signals run theory seismic precursors. 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Akaike, H.: 1974, A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control, AC-19, 716–722.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alessio, G., Esposito, F., Gorini, A. and Porfido S.: 1995, Detailed study of the Potentino seismic zone in the Southern Apennines, Tectonophysics 250, 113–134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins G. M.: 1976, Time Series Analysis, Holden-Day, S. Francisco.Google Scholar
  4. Cuomo, V., Di Bello, G., Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., and Serio, C.: 1996, Parametric time series analysis of extreme events in electrical earthquake precursors, Tectonophysics 262 (1–4), 159–172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Cuomo, V., Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., and Serio, C.: 1997, Autoregressive models as a tool to discriminate chaos from randomness in geoelectrical time series: an application to earthquake prediction, Annali di Geofisica XL(2), 385–400.Google Scholar
  6. Di Bello, G., Lapenna, V., Satriano, C. and Tramutoli, V.: 1994, Self-potential time series analysis in a seismic area of the Southern Apennines: preliminary results, Annali di Geofisica XXXVIII(5), 1137–1148.Google Scholar
  7. Di Bello, G., Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., Satriano, C., Serio, C. and Tramutoli, V.: 1996, Parametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy, Annali di Geofisica XXXIX(1), 11–21.Google Scholar
  8. Dobrovolsky, I. P., Zubkov, S. I., and Miachkin, V.I.: 1979, Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones, PAGEOPH 117, 1025–1044.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Doglioni, C., Harabaglia, P., Martinelli, G., Mongelli, E, and Zito, G.: 1996, A geodynamic model of the Southern Apennines accretionary prism, Terra Nova 8, 540–547.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ekström, G.: 1994, Teleseismic analysis of the 1990 and 1991 earthquakes near Potenza, Annali di Geofisica XXXVII(6), 1591–1599.Google Scholar
  11. Evans Ed.: 1997a, Special Section-Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction, Geophys. J. Int. 131.Google Scholar
  12. Geller, Ed.: 1996, Special Issue of Geophysical Research Letters “Debate on VAN method”, Geoph. Res. Lett. 23(11), 1291–1452.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Kendall, M. and Stuart, A.: 1976, The Advanced Theory of Statistics,Vol. 3, Charles Griffin Co, p. 585.Google Scholar
  14. Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., Patella, D., Satriano, C., Serio, C., and Tramutoli, V.: 1994, Statistical analysis of non-stationary voltage recordings in geoelectrical prospecting, Geophys. Prospect. 42, 917–952.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. LeBoutillier, D. W. and Waylen, P. R.: 1988, Stochastic analysis of cold spells, J. Appl. Meteor. 27, 67–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Mallet, R.: 1862, The first principle of observational seismology as developed in the report to the Royal Society of London of the expedition made by command of the Society into the interior of the Kingdom of Naples to investigate the circumstances of the great earthquake of December 1857, London ( Reprint Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Roma, 1987 ).Google Scholar
  17. Nur, A.:1972, Dilatancy pore fluids, and premonitory variatons of t p /t s travel times, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 62, 1217–1222.Google Scholar
  18. Pantosti, D. and Valensise G.: 1990, Faulting mechanism and complexity of the November 23, 1980, Campania Lucania earthquake, inferred from surface observations, J. Geophys. Res. 95 (B10), 15329–15341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Park, S. K: 1996, Precursors to earthquakes: seismo-electromagnetic signals, Survey in Geophysics 17, 493–516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Patacca, E., Scandone, P., Bellatalla, M., Perilli, and Santini, U.: 1988, L’Appennino Meridionale: modello strutturale e palinspastica dei domini esterni, Invited paper at the 74° Congresso Soc. Geol. It., pp. 67–69.Google Scholar
  21. Rikitake, T.:1988, Earthquake prediction: an empirical approach, Tectonophysics 148, 195–210.Google Scholar
  22. Scholz, C. H.: 1990, The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  23. Scholz, C. H., Syches, L. R., and Aggarwal, Y. P.: 1973, Earthquake prediction: a physical basis, Science 181, 803–810.Google Scholar
  24. Tertulliani, A., Anzidei, M., Maramai, A., Murru, M., and Riguzzi, F.: 1992, Macroseismic study of the Potenza (Southern Italy) Earthquake of 5 May 1990, Natural Hazards 6, 25–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Wyss, M. (ed.): 1991, Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors, American Geophys. Union, Washington.Google Scholar
  26. Wyss, M.: 1997, Cannot earthquakes be predicted? Science 278, 487–488.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • V. Cuomo
    • 1
  • G. Di Bello
    • 1
  • V. Lapenna
    • 1
  • S. Piscitelli
    • 1
  • L. Telesca
    • 1
  • M. Macchiato
    • 2
  • C. Serio
    • 3
  1. 1.Ist. di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi AmbientaleCNRTito (PZ)Italy
  2. 2.Dip. di Scienze FisicheUniversità di NapoliNapoliItaly
  3. 3.Dip. di Ingegneria e Fisica dell’AmbienteUniversità della BasilicataPotenzaItaly

Personalised recommendations