Epidemic Modelling of HIV/AIDS Transfers between Eastern and Western Europe

  • Phillip Smith
  • Richard Thomas
Part of the The GeoJournal Library book series (GEJL, volume 70)


A recent analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Western Europe revealed a number of north-south contrasts (Thomas, 2000). The introduction of antiretroviral drug combination therapies that suppress symptoms of AIDS in those with HIV (Feigal et al., 1999; Deschamps et al., 2000), for example, appears to have had the greater health impact in northern countries. Similarly, the comparatively low incidence in the north, which is predominantly among gay men, was supported by more extensive travel patterns than in the south, where intravenous drug use (IVDU) is the major risk behaviour. These findings were obtained by fitting a multiregion epidemic model to reported AIDS incidence in each country. The present paper extends this space-time analysis to all the countries of Europe with the intention of identifying further structural differences between east and west.


Risk Population Reproduction Number Epidemic Model East European Country West European Country 
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Phillip Smith
    • 1
  • Richard Thomas
    • 1
  1. 1.School of GeographyUniversity of ManchesterManchesterUK

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