National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories in Developing Countries and Countries with Economies in Transition: Global Synthesis

Abstract

A number of developing countries and countries with economies in transition have compiled preliminary national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions according to the Guidelines established by the IPCC. This paper synthesizes the interim results of national inventories compiled by 31 countries located in Africa, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States, and Latin America. National emissions and sinks are discussed by sector in the context of socioeconomic information, methodological approaches, regional characteristics, and global trends; national emission estimates are also compared, when possible, to other published estimates that are based largely on international databases.

The energy, land-use change and forestry, and agriculture sectors are the most important sources of emissions in these countries. Carbon dioxide is the most important gas emitted in about two-thirds of the countries, while methane is the most significant gas in the others. The energy sector is the largest source of emissions in the more industrialized countries, primarily due to emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion and, to a lesser degree, to fugitive methane from coal mining and oil and gas systems. The land-use change and forestry sector is the most important source of greenhouse gas emissions in several countries located in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, largely due to carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation. However, all of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States, and several countries in Africa and Asia, have estimated that the land-use change and forestry sector is a net sink of carbon. Agriculture is the most important source category in several African, Asian, and Latin American countries, particularly those that rely more heavily on biofuels than fossil fuels, and methane is the most important greenhouse gas emitted. The livestock category is the largest single agricultural source of emissions in most countries. However, emissions from rice cultivation equal or exceed emissions from livestock in the major rice-producing countries of Asia and Africa, and savanna burning is a significant source of agricultural emissions in several countries in Africa and Latin America.

Uncertainties in emission estimates are illustrated by comparisons of national inventory results to other published databases of national emissions. Estimates are closest for those sectors for which activity data are well documented and emission factors are well constrained (for example, carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion and cement production), while estimates diverge by as much as two orders of magnitude for other sectors for which activity data are uncertain and emission factors are controlled by local conditions (for example, methane from oil and natural gas systems, rice cultivation, and waste management).

Despite their preliminary nature, these 31 inventories represent significant progress in meeting country commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. In addition, these inventories provide valuable feedback to the IPCC Guidelines development progress through the testing and evaluation of methodologies, and they provide useful information for refining international greenhouse gas emission databases. Furthermore, national inventories are a vital first step in the analysis of emission mitigation options, because an inventory provides a baseline of annual emission estimates from which countries may analyze national mitigation strategies.