Skip to main content

Induced Preferences and Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

  • Chapter
  • 166 Accesses

Part of the book series: Theory and Decision Library ((TDLB,volume 35))

Abstract

In this paper we suggest a new interpretation of non-additive probabilities. We study a decision-maker who follows the Savage axioms. We show the if (s)he is able to take unobservable actions which influence the probabilities of outcomes then it can appear to an outsider as if his/her subjective probabilities are non-additive. We make a related analysis of models with objective probabilities and show that the induced preferences can have the rank dependent expected utility form. Implications for multi-period decisions are explored.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Arrow, K.J. and L. Hurwicz, (1972), in, “An Optimality Criterion for Decision-Making Under Ignorance.” in C.F. Carter and J.L. Ford (eds.), Uncertainty and Expectations in Economics. Oxford, Blackwell.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barbera, S. and M. Jackson, (1988), “Maximin, Leximin and the Protective Criterion.” Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 46, pp. 34–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barrett, C.R. and P.K. Pattanaik, (1995), “Decision Making Under Complete Uncertainty: The Ordinal Framework.” in D. Dickinson and S. Sen (eds), Uncertainty and Risk in Economic Life, Edward Elgar, Aldershot, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chew, S.H., E. Karni and Z. Safra, (1987), “Risk Aversion and the Theory of Expected Utility with Rank Dependent Probabilities,” Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 42, pp. 370–381.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choquet, G., (1953–4), “Theory of Capacities”, Annales Institut Fourier, vol. 5, pp. 131–295.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dow, J. and S.R.C. Werlang, (1992), “Risk Aversion, Uncertainty Aversion and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio,” Econometrica, vol. 60, pp. 197–204.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dreze, J.H., (1987), “Decision Theory with Moral Hazard and State-Dependent Preferences.” in J.H. Dreze, Essays on Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty, CUP, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eichberger J. and D. Kelsey, (1994), “Non-Additive Beliefs and Game Theory,” University of Birmingham discussion paper no. 94–01.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eichberger J. and D. Kelsey, (1996), “Uncertainty Aversion and Dynamic Consistency.” International Economic Review, forthcoming.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellsberg, D., (1961), “Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 75, pp. 643–669.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Epstein, L., (1992), “Behaviour Under Risk: Recent Developments in Theory and Applications.” in J.J.Laffont (ed), Advances in Economic Theory, vol. II, CUP, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilboa, I. and D. Schmeidler, (1989), “Maxmin Expected Utility with a Non-Unique Prior,” Journal of Mathematical Economics, vol. 18, pp. 141–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilboa, I. and D. Schmeidler, (1993), “Updating Ambiguous Beliefs,” Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 59, pp. 33–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilboa, I. and D. Schmeidler, (1994), “Additive Representations of Non-additive Measures and the Choquet Integral,” Annals of Operations Research, vol. 52, pp. 43–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelsey, D., (1994), “Maxmin Expected Utility and Weight of Evidence,” Orford Economic Papers, vol. 46, pp. 425–444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelsey, D. and F. Milne, (1994), “Induced Preferences, Dynamic Consistency and Dutch Books,” working paper, The University of Birmingham.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelsey, D. and F. Milne, (1996), “Induced Preferences, Non-Additive Probabilities and Multiple Priors,” working paper, The University of Birmingham.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelsey, D. and J. Quiggin, (1992), “Theories of Choice Under Ignorance and Uncertainty,” Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 6, pp. 133–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Machina, M., (1989), “Dynamic Consistency and Non-Expected Utility Models of Choice Under Uncertainty”, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 27, pp. 1622–1668.

    Google Scholar 

  • Milne, F., (1981), “Induced Preferences and the Theory of the Consumer,” Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 24, pp. 205–213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quiggin, J., (1982), “A Theory of Anticipated Utility,” Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation, vol. 3, pp. 323–43.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L.J., (1954), Foundations of Statistics, Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmeidler, D., (1989), “Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity,” Econometrica, vol. 57, pp. 571–587.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Segal, U. and A. Spivak, (1990), “First-order versus Second-Order Risk Aversion,” Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 51, pp. 111–125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shafer, G. (1976), A Mathematical Theory of Evidence, Princeton University Press, New Jersey. Yaari, M., (1987), “The Dual Theory of Choice Under Risk,” Econometrica, vol. 55, pp. 95–115.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1997 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kelsey, D., Milne, F. (1997). Induced Preferences and Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty. In: Nau, R., Grønn, E., Machina, M., Bergland, O. (eds) Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty. Theory and Decision Library, vol 35. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1360-3_14

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1360-3_14

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4849-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-017-1360-3

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics