Abstract
To examine the sensitivity of environmental systems to climatic variability and change, integrated model systems for climate impact assessment are being developed for New Zealand (CLIMPACTS) and Bangladesh (BDCLIM). Features common to both model systems include a global climate model, regional modules for generating climate scenarios, and models for biophysical impact analyses. For CLIMPACTS, modified ecosystem models for horticultural crops, arable crops, and pasture production are being incorporated. For BDCLIM, the emphasis is on analysis of possible changes in agroclimatic zones and hydrology, including the risks of floods and droughts. The initial emphasis of both systems is on nationwide spatial analyses, using simplified models as much as possible. The development of integrated model systems supports the needs of the respective countries in assessing scientific uncertainties, evaluating vulnerabilities, and identifying adaptation options as a basis for international reporting requirements under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and for policy and planning at national and regional levels. The major advantage of such integrated model systems is that they can readily be updated as the science of climate change advances, thus providing an evolving tool for future reassessments of climate impacts.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ahmad, Q.K., Warrick, R.A., Ericksen, N.J., and Mina, M.Q.: 1996, The implications of climate change for Bangladesh: a synthesis, in: Warrick, R.A. and Ahmad, Q.K. (eds), The Implications of Climate and Sea-Level Change for Bangladesh, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp, 1 - 34.
Alcamo J. (ed): 1994, IMAGE 2.0: Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change (reprinted from Water, Air and Soil Pollution 76 ), Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Brisson N., King D., Nicoullaud B., Ruget F., Ripoche D., and Darthout R.: 1992, Eur. J. Agron. 1(3), 163. Carter T.R., Parry M.L., and Porter J.H.: 1991, International Journal of Climatology 11,251.
Carter T.R., Parry M.L., Harasawa H., and Nishioka S.: 1994, IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations, Department of Geography, University College London, United Kingdom and Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
CRU 0000 ERL (Climatic Research Unit and Environmental Resources Ltd): 1992a, Development of a Framework for the Evaluation of Policy Options to Deal with the Greenhouse Effect: A Scientific Description of the ESCAPE Model,Report to the Commission of the European Communities.
CRU 0000 ERL (Climatic Research Unit and Environmental Resources Ltd): 1992b, Development of a Framework for the Evaluation ofPolicy Options to Deal with the Greenhouse Effect: A User Manual for the ESCAPE Software,Report to the Commission of the European Communities.
Dowlatabadi H. and Morgan M.G.: 1993a, Science 259, 1813.
Dowlatabadi H. and Morgan M.G.: 1993b, Energy Policy 21, 209.
FCCC: 1992, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNEP/WMO Information Unit on Climate Change (IUCC), Geneva, Switzerland.
Gordon H.B. and Hunt B.G.: 1991, International Journal of Climatology 11, 347.
Hall A.J. and McPherson Ea: In press, Acta Horticulturae.
Hope C.W., Anderson J., and Wenman P.: 1993, Energy Policy 21, 327.
Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J., and Ephramus, J.J. (eds): 1990, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Houghton, J.T., Meiro Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds): 1996, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Hulme M., Raper S.C.B., and Wigley T.M.L.: 1994, An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC), in Nakicenovic N. and Toth F. (eds), Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, IIASA Collaborative Paper Series, Luxembourg.
Hulme M., Wigley T.M.L., Jiang T., Zhao Z-ci., Wang F., Ding Y., Leemans R., and Markham A.: 1992, Climate Change due to the Greenhouse Effect and its Implications for China, WWF, Gland, Switzerland.
Hutchinson M.F.: 1989, CSIRO Division of Water Resources Tech. Memo. 89 /5, 95.
Jamieson P.D., Semenov M.A., and Francis G.S.: In press, Field Crops Research.
Kates R.W.: 1985, The interaction of climate and society, in: Kates R.W., Ausubel J.H., and Berberian M. (eds), Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society, SCOPE 27, Wiley, Chichester, England.
Kenny G.J. and Harrison P.A.: 1992, Climate Research 2, 113.
Kenny G.J., Harrison P.A., and Parry M.L. (eds): 1993a, The Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural and Horticultural Potential in Europe, Research Report No. 2, Environmental Change Unit: University of Oxford, England.
Kenny G.J., Harrison P.A., Parry M.L., and Porter J.R.: 1993b, European Journal ofAgronomy 2 (4), 243.
Kenny G.J., Warrick R.A., Mitchell N.D., Mullan A.B., and Salinger M.J.: 1995, Journal ofBiogeography 22 (4/5), 883.
Manabe S. and Wetherald R.T.: 1987, Journal ofAtmospheric Science 44, 1211.
McCall D.G.: 1984, A Systems Approach to Research Planning for North Island Hill Country, PhD thesis, Massey University, Palmerston North.
McPherson H.G., Hall A.J., and Stanley C.J.: 1992, Journal ofHorticultural Science 67(4), 509. Mitchell N.D.: 1991, Journal of the Royal Society ofNew Zealand 21 (1), 13.
Muchow R.C., Sinclair T.R., and Bennett J.M.: 1990, Agronomy Journal 82, 338.
Mullan A.B. and Salinger M.J. 1994, CLIMPACTS 1993/94: Climate Change Scenarios from GCM Output and Palaeoclimate Data,NIWA Report, February.
Nakicenovic and Toth F. (eds): 1994, Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, IIASA Collaborative Paper Series, Laxenburg, Austria.
Nix H.A.: 1986, A biogeographic analysis of Australian Elapid snakes, in Longmore, R. (ed) Atlas ofElapid Snakes ofAustralia, Australian Government Publishing Services, Canberra, Australia, pp. 4 - 15.
Osborn T.J. and Wigley T.M.L.: 1994, Climate Dynamics 9, 181.
Parry M.L., Carter T.R, and Konijn N.T. (eds): 1988a, The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Volume 1. Assessments in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Papy M.L., Carter T.R., and KonijnN.T. (eds): 1988b, The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Volume 2. Assessments in Semi Arid Regions, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Rosenzweig C. and Iglesias A. (eds): 1994, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, Adaptation Branch, Washington, DC.
Rosenzweig C. and Parry M.L.: 1994, Nature 367, 133.
Rotmans J.: 1990, IMAGE: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Rotmans J., Hulme M., and Downing T.E.: 1994, Global Environmental Change 4 (2), 97.
Salinger M.J. and Kenny G.J.: 1995, New Zealand Journal of Crop and Horticultural Science 23, 173.
Salinger M.J., Kenny G.J., and Morley-Bunker M.J.: 1993, New Zealand Journal of Crop and Horticultural Science 21, 235.
Tate K.R., Giltrap D.J., Parshotam A., Hewitt A.E., Ross D.J., Kenny G.J., and Warrick R.A.: In press, Impacts of climate change on soils and land systems in New Zealand, in: Pearman G. an d Manning M.R. (eds), Greenhouse 94, CSIRO.
Water and Soil Division: 1979, Our Land Resources, A bulletin to accompany New Zealand land resource worksheets, Ministry of Works and Development, Wellington, New Zealand.
Wigley T.M.L.: 1993, Tellus 45B, 409.
Wigley T.M.L. and Raper S.C.B.: 1992, Nature 357, 293.
Wigley T.M.L. and Raper S.C.B.: 1993, Future changes in global-mean temperature and sea level, in: Warrick R.A., Barrow E.M., and Wigley T.M.L. (eds), Climate and Sea Level Change: Observations, Projections, and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, pp. 111 - 133.
Wilson D.R., Muchow R.C., and Murgatroyd C.J.: 1995, Field Crops Res. 43, 1.
Wratt D.S. and Matthews W.A.: 1992, Submission for Funding from Output Class 33: Atmosphere and Climate Research, Ministry for Research, Science and Technology, Wellington, New Zealand.
Yee T.W. and Mitchell N.D.: 1991, Journal of Vegetation Science 2, 587.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1996 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Warrick, R.A., Kenny, G.J., Sims, G.C., Ericksen, N.J., Ahmad, Q.K., Mirza, M.Q. (1996). Integrated Model Systems for National Assessments of the Effects of Climate Change: Applications in New Zealand and Bangladesh. In: Erda, L., et al. Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1053-4_20
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1053-4_20
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4745-8
Online ISBN: 978-94-017-1053-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive