Abstract
This paper considers, retrospectively, a forecast of UK and EEC milk production in 1995 made in the mid-1980s. The forecast arose out of a request by a large agri-business firm to consider a future marketing environment which was becoming increasingly dominated by EEC policy decisions. Because of this, conventional commodity market forecasting techniques were inappropriate. A Baysian approach was adopted and incorporated into a Delphi survey.
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References
Fearne, A. (1989). “The CAP in 1995 - A Qualitative Approach to Policy Forecasting”, European Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 16, No. 1.
Fearne, A., Oughton, E.A. and Ritson, C. (1985). “Milk, Beef and Sheepmeat Production -Forecasts to 1990 and 1995”, Report No. 29 Department of Agricultural and Food Marketing, University of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Fearne, A. and Ritson, C. (1987). “The CAP in 1995 - a Survey of Expert Opinion (with Special Reference to Milk Policy), Report No. 30, Department of Agricultural and Food Marketing, University of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Ritson, C. (1985). “Agricultural Marketing: The Scope of the Subject”, in J.L. Jollans (Ed.) “The Teaching of Agricultural Marketing in the UK”, Report No. 8, Centre for Agricultural Strategy, University of Reading.
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© 1995 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Ritson, C., Fearne, A. (1995). Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Markets under Policy Constraints: A Retrospective Case Study. In: Janssen, J., Skiadas, C.H., Zopounidis, C. (eds) Advances in Stochastic Modelling and Data Analysis. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-0663-6_13
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-0663-6_13
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4574-4
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