Abstract
Lack of data is an obstacle for analysing the interaction between sawnwood inventories and prices. There are, however, methods to obtain indicators of sawnwood consumer inventory movements. The starting point is to obtain an indicator of real consumption of sawnwood. Since data on apparent consumption generally are available, the two time series can be combined to get an indicator of inventory change. The paper shows a method by which an indicator of inventory change can be obtained. Furthermore, VectorAutoRegression (VAR) is applied as a method for simultaneous dynamic modelling price and inventory movements. A cointegration approach is applied, where no indication of a long-term equilibrium is found. The hypothesis of stationary inventory movements is consequently confirmed, which means that inventories are mainly used for short-term adjustments.
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Baudin, A. (2003). Inventory and price movements of coniferous sawnwood in Europe. In: Helles, F., Strange, N., Wichmann, L. (eds) Recent Accomplishments in Applied Forest Economics Research. Forestry Sciences, vol 74. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-0279-9_16
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-0279-9_16
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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