A Dynamic Simulation Study of Tourism and Environment in the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico

Abstract

This chapter presents results generated by an integrated dynamic model used to study the interactions between population, environment, and economy. The model is based on the Population-Development-Environment (PDE) approach developed by Lutz (1994). Recent PDE models have dealt with the small islands of Mauritius (Lutz, 1994) and Cape Verde (Wils, 1996). After studying islands the next step is to develop a more elaborate PDE model for a peninsula. For the present study, the Yucatán peninsula in Mexico was chosen for several reasons. First, it is a region that mostly borders the sea, which poses constraints to trade and human migration. Only recently, the peninsula has been connected by land infrastructure to the rest of Mexico. Second, it has a specific historical culture — the Mayan civilisation whose population suddenly decreased — of which many archaeological sites remain (Lutz et al., 1996). Third, drastic economic and demographic changes have taken place in the last twenty years, such as a large population increase, resulting mostly from the growth of the tourism industry. Fourth, conflicts exist between the goals of economic growth, the population and the environment which are, to a large extent, due to tourism growth. In the PDE modelling of the peninsula special attention is given to the tourism sector for three reasons: (i) it is the most important economic sector in the peninsula; (ii) the tourism sector has developed rapidly in the last decades and is expected to continue growing in the coming years; and (iii) there are many interesting interactions between tourism, other economic sectors, population and environment worth analysing.

The present research was performed at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. This research was financially supported by a grant from the Dutch Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).