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Opportunities to Improve the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

  • Chapter
Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems

Part of the book series: Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library ((ATSL,volume 21))

Abstract

The numerous impediments obstructing the optimal use of seasonal climate forecasts are reviewed. These include

  • Scientific problems (eg. limited skill)

  • Inappropriate content (eg. not forecasting what users need)

  • External constraints (eg. inability of users to change decisions)

  • Complexity of target system (eg. the impacts of a predictable climate anomaly may be unpredictable)

  • Communication problems (eg. confusion due to multiple forecasts)

  • User resistance or misuse (eg. user conservatism)

  • Cognitive biases (eg. probability illusions)

Strategies to overcome these problems and thereby improve the use of seasonal climate forecasts are discussed.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, PO Box 1289K, Melbourne, Vic, 3001, Australia

    Neville Nicholls

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  1. Neville Nicholls
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

    G. L. Hammer

  2. Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, PO Box 1289K, 3001, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    N. Nicholls

  3. CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    C. Mitchell

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Nicholls, N. (2000). Opportunities to Improve the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., Mitchell, C. (eds) Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems. Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, vol 21. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_19

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_19

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-90-481-5443-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-015-9351-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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