Assessment of Foodgrain Production Loss Due to Climate Induced Enhanced Soil Salinity

Abstract

The loss of foodgrain production due to soil salinity intrusion in the coastal districts was estimated under climate change scenarios. A computer model was developed that provided with a genesis of soil salinity build-up in the relatively drier months of the crop calendar. The time-series soil salinity database was compared with the field-level observations and the model was validated. It was found that the soil salinity generally increases rapidly in the winter months and reaches maximum values in April.

The time-series database was then correlated with the time specific events in the crop calendar for two crops, Aman and Aus rice, to estimate the damage in production due to. adverse effects of salinity. It was found that the impacts of soil salinity would be manifold under the climate change scenarios. It was also found that the estimated crop loss under the severe climate change scenario would be the maximum. Furthermore, more areas would become severely affected by soil salinity and thereby the affected lands would become unsuitable for a number of crops. As a result, the food security of the country would be threatened under climate change.

The modelling was extended to examine crop loss considering adaptation in conjunction with the climate change scenarios. The results show that substantial improvement might be achieved by adapting to increased soil salinity, yet the projected loss would be significant.