Abstract
This chapter investigates into the domestic conditions in India, Indonesia, Kenya and Brazil, for as an interviewee put it, “if the domestic political will is lacking, it doesn’t matter what you do in international negotiations”.1 Section 3.2 looks at the domestic perceptions of the potential national impacts of climate change, and of their relative contribution to GHG emissions. Section 3.3 examines the domestic debate on the climate issue in terms of the interest groups and their policy beliefs. Section 3.4 studies the domestic climate policy, the inferred climate change policy (i.e. policy that is relevant, but is not referred to as climate change policy within the domestic context), and the potential for future policy. Section 3.5 identifies trends emerging from the analysis.
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References
Interview 1994–95, 108.
Interview 1994–95, 67.
Interview 1994–95, 128.
India’s mean temperature has risen by 0.4°C over the last century (Rao et al. 1994: 53).
Interview 1994–95, 99, 111.
Interview 1994–95, 89.
Interview 1994–95, 18. Interviews 17 and 26 were on similar lines.
Interview 1994–95, 7, 27.
Interview 1994–95, 52: “We would not like to prepare a premature unwarranted analysis”.
Mitra 1992a — base year 1989–90 — cited in IPCC/OECD 1992; Mitra 1993 — base year 1989–90 -cited in ADB 1994a; Ten (1993) — base year 1989–90 — cited in ADB 1994a. Subak, S. Raskin, P. and Von Hippel, D. (1993). National Greenhouse Gas Accounts: current anthropogenic sources and sinks, Climatic Change 25:15–58; cited in Rao et al 1994. WRI 1994 — base year 1991.
70% of the electricity is generated in coal based thermal power stations (Rao et al. 1994: 53).
Interview 1994–95, 44.
Interview 1994–95, 101.
IPCC/OECD 1993 — base year 1989; ADB 1994b (estimates emissions of CO2 at 159 million tons of C (582 million tons of CO2)). The emissions are calculated using the Greenhouse Gas Scenario System (G2S2). p.81.); JICA 1993 — base year 1990; WRI (1994) — base year 1994.
Interview 1994–95, 102.
The figures (cited in World Bank 1994: 52) regarding deforestation for Indonesia range from 262,900 hectares (TAG 1991), 623,000 hectares (Dick 1991), 900,000 hectares (World Bank 1990), 1,315,000 (FAO 1991), 1.3 million hectares per year (Govt, of Indonesia 1991: 21).
Interviews 1994–95, 77, 87, 89 claimed that per capita corrected emissions in Brazil are low. See also Goldemberg 1994: 176.
Interview 1994–95, 78, 85.
Interviews 1994–95, 87, 89, 90.
Interview 1994–95, 85.
In India there has been no public “debate” on climate change prior to the signing and ratification of the FCCC. Climate change appears not to be a political or societal issue within the country (Interview 1994–95, 50, 51, 54, 55, 56, 63, 65, 66, 69). In Indonesia although there were discussions on the issue prior to ratification, climate change “has never been a priority of policymakers.... The decision to sign and ratify the Climate Change Convention can be seen as a result of a successful effort by the Ministry of the Environment to convince other ministries., of the political significance of the action internationally” (Kuntjoro-Djakti et al. 1994: E9; (see 4.2). The political parties talk about the environment, because, unlike human rights, it is perceived as a non-sensitive issue, and they can make political capital out of it (interview 1994–95, 96, 110, 111, 113, 116, 119). There has been no national ‘debate’ on the issue in Kenya prior to ratification. Climate change is rarely covered in the media and the few experts with relevant knowledge were not consulted by the Government (Interview 1994–95, 11, 25). Brazilians, as hosts to UNCED, experienced considerable exposure to environmental and climate change issues, although there was limited debate (Interview 1994–95, 82, 85; this view is contradicted by an official — 77). Since Rio, the interest in this issue is waning (Interview 1994–95, 74, 82, 85), and it is no longer in the limelight, partly eclipsed by presidential scandals and elections.
In India, as UNCED attracted some attention in the press, the media focused on the North-South dimensions of ‘the Earth wars’, as opposed to the domestic role of India in GHG emissions. It focused on the lack of credibility of IC governments, and the summit was seen as a ‘symbolic summit’ with ‘toothless treaties’ (Chengappa 1992: 30). Ex-President Bush’s remark on not compromising the interests of the U.S. people was perceived as summing up the attitudes of the North (Interviews 1994–95, 36, 37, 40, 41, 57, 58, 60, 64, 65, 69, 70). In Indonesia, the media covered climate change from a scientific and informative perspective rather than from a political perspective, in keeping with the domestic trend of avoiding political analyses. A few intellectuals discuss the North-South dimension as well as the domestic rich-poor dimension (Interviews 1994–95, 110, 111, 115, 119, 126). Since the FCCC was ratified primarily with the international dimension in mind (Kuntjoro-Djakti et al. 1994: E9), the North-South issue was probably highly relevant for the negotiators. In Brazil, interviewees were vociferous on the subject, especially in relation to the need for ICs to reduce their emissions (Interview 1994–95, 73, 76, 80, 81, 84, 85, 89, 91, 92, 93). In Kenya, the media hardly covered the issue, but interviewees kept focusing on the North-South aspects (Interviews 1994–95, 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 19, 24, 25, 26, 29, 33).
The ‘support’ groups are those concerned about the climate change issue per sé. The ‘third- party’ support interests include those who are willing to champion the cause for other reasons, such as for redressing global inequity or domestic poverty, or dealing with domestic energy problems. It would be a misnomer to refer to these interests as interest groups, as they are in most cases just a handful of individuals. NGO perspectives are regarded as suspect within their own country, partly because local people feel that they should concentrate on domestic priorities and partly because they are backed by foreign flinders (Interview 1994–95, 54, 55, 56). Third-party support interests are the most dominant influence on DC negotiators.
This inference is based on default evidence, i.e. in the course of developing a list of potential interviewees, there were few relevant actors identified. The potential victims are as yet unaware of the potential consequences for them. (Only Indonesia has a policy to warn farmers and other likely losers from climate change). As the climate issue was seen as a North-South issue and championed by third-party support groups, industry is also not unduly alarmed by the possible consequences of climate policy. They are confident that their interests will be protected by the government. The interests of the polluter, i.e. the producers (including industry) and consumers, rich and poor, are not yet organised around the climate change issue. Domestic payer interests include the government, in so far as it will have to finance the different climate change policies, and clearly this makes them reluctant. All four governments have stated their reluctance in funding climate-related measures (except on research in Brazil, India and Indonesia).
Industrialists had different views. In Kenya, while industry is interested in energy conservation, production has higher priority (interview 1994–95, 20). In India, some actors argued that industry is not interested in conservation unless pressurised, others that industry is beginning to take measures to deal with environmental issues although the impact of these measures on GHG abatement will be negligible (interviews 1994–95, 62, 129, 136, 139). Industry will not prioritise the climate issue and nor will the Government since it has not been caused by DCs. This view was echoed in Indonesia (interview 1994–95, 117, 118) and Brazil (interview 1994–95, 84).
The social consequences of deforestation in India and Indonesia, and to a lesser extent Brazil, have been manifested over a long period of time and interest groups have been formed. The ecological arguments are being tacked on to the existing social arguments to provide a larger framework for action. The polluter interests include the large-scale timber merchants and the relevant government departments who are well organised in Indonesia and Brazil; land-use change advocates, and small-scale fuel-wood operations. While other interest groups are less organized, the third-party victim interest group consists of forest dwellers such as Chico Mendes and the rubber tappers of Brazil (Mendes 1989) and the Chipco Movement in India. In India this group has influenced national NGOs to lobby for the return of the forests to the local people and to involve them in its management as the soundest way of addressing the forest protection problem. In Indonesia and Brazil, this position is being lobbied by various environmental NGOs, and they claim that unless the concerns of these interest groups are taken into account sustainable forestry measures will not be possible.
Interview 55. See also interviews 64, 82 and 94.
Interview 65. See also interview 67.
Interview 116, 125.
Interview 24.
Interviews 1994–95: In Kenya: 4, 8, 23, 26. In India: 39, 60, 71, 131, 141. In Brazil: 78. In Indonesia: 95, 101, 107, 108, 124, 125.
Interviews 1994–95: In Kenya: 4, 13, 16, 17, 26, 29; India: 50, 53, 63, 67, 69, 70, 136; Brazil: 73, 90, 94; and Indonesia 99, 111, 126.
Interviews 1994–95: In Kenya: 1, 4, 8, 13, 24, 25, 29; Brazil: 75, 77, 90; Indonesia: 99.
Interview 1994–95, 63.
Economic Pancasila, the dominant economic ideology, focuses on the achievement of high rates of growth, a stable macro economic environment and the alleviation of poverty. Under this ideology, Indonesia’s economy is defined as an economy that fosters the prosperity of the greater community before certain individuals or groups. According to one report, two divergent development approaches compete: the technocratic approach that Indonesia’s economic development should be based on an efficient allocation of resources and macro-economic stability, and the technologist’s approach to improve Indonesia’s technological power irrespective of the economic costs to the nation (EIU Indonesia 1994: 5). The former is based on Economic Pancasila, while the latter aims at making Indonesia a technological power in the world.
Liberalisation in ICs has been in the context of a welfare state. In the DCs, the social security is in the form of subsidies for energy, water and food. Liberalisation in India may imply that these subsidies have to be phased out; but in its place a new system has to be developed. As the liberalisation process emphasises the former, there is a fear that this will lead to further marginalisation of the poor and consequent environmental degradation.
For example, Guha (1988: 2050) classifies Indian environmental ideologies into the Crusading Gandhian which rejects the modem way of life, emphasising the virtues of the pre-colonial, precapitalist village system and its harmony with nature; the Appropriate Technology strand which works towards a synthesis of agriculture and industry, western and indigenous; and the Ecological Marxists, who argue that systemic economic change is necessary prior to ecological stability.
Interviews 1994–95, 36, 41, 120, 121.
In Indonesia, the State management of forestry is legitimized by three ideologies: (a) that state forestry serves the greatest good of the greatest number of people; (2) that scientific forestry is an efficient and rational form of resource use, and (3) that promoting economic growth through forest production for the state is the key component of the forester’s role. NGOs argue that these ideologies do not match local people’s views of the forest, nor contribute to the development of the forest people (Peluso 1992: 125). Once coercive conservation tactics are accepted, people are co-opted into the process (Peluso 1993: 67). In Brazil, the issue of deforestation came into the limelight in 1987. The reaction of the government and the forest industry was to deny the truth in the published articles; but the articles had provoked international interest. The murder of Chico Mendes, a rubber tapper, in December 1988, increased the international attention on the nature and type of activities being undertaken in the region and the plight of the Indians and the forests. As a response, the Government created the Environment Institute and the Prev-Fogo (Fire prevention) programme. However, there remains a conflict between these two groups.
The Pancasila has five main tenets, belief in one God, just and civilized humanity, the unity of Indonesia, democracy and social justice (Government of Indonesia 1993c).
Interviews 1994–95, 96, 110, 113, 116, 119.
Interview 1994–95, 37. See also Pachauri 1996, Agarwal et al. 1992; Nyerere et al 1990.
Interview 1994–95, 128.
Interview 1994–95, 119.
Interview 1994–95, 52, 57, 62, 65.
They represent the Ministries of Environment, Communications, Energy, Forestry, Industry, Agriculture, Public Works, Health, Defence, the Agency for Survey and Mapping, the Department of Planning, Indonesian Institute for Scientific Research, the Agency for Aerospace, Research and Technology, Institute of Technology, Institute of Agriculture, Bogor and WALHI, an NGO.
i.e. developing a) knowledge and technology in climate change monitoring, effects and regional and international cooperation; b) a climate change data information centre and centre for research on climate change at national and local level; c) legal instruments concerning the problem of GHG; d) alternative clean and safe energy sources and the implementation of the FCCC.
i.e. increasing the capability and the role of institutions for information development on climate change and establishing a centre for climate change studies; developing a data and information inventory and infrastructure concerning climate change; improving human resources quality concerning climate change studies; disseminating information concerning climate change to the public; increasing cooperation among institutions regarding the problem of climate change; improving the coordination forum on monitoring and evaluating the impact of climate change to discuss and formulate inter-sectoral priorities of research, monitoring and policy formulation; organizing a case study and research of the impacts of climate change in relation to food production, agriculture, fisheries, beaches, etc; safeguarding water bodies for agricultural and public utilization because of water stress from climate change; increasing the efficiency of fossil fuel usage in industrial activities, transport and other activities; improving forest management and increasing the function of absorbtion and to reduce the net emissions of forests.
Interview 1994–95, 111.
Such research is being supported by UNEP, ADB and the Japanese, Norwegian, and American aid agencies.
Act no. 5 of 1967: General Provisions concerning Forestry; Act no. 1 of 1973 concerning continental boundaries; Act no. 4 of 1982 concerning general provisions on environmental management; Act no 5 of 1983 on exclusive economic zones; Act no. 9 of 1985 on fisheries; Act no. 17 of 1985 on the ratification of the Law of the Sea; Act no. 5 of 1990 on the conservation of natural resources and ecosystems; Act no. 12 of 1992 on the cropping system; Act no.24 of 1992 covering health; Act no. 23 of 1992 Presidential Decree concerning the ratification of the Vienna Convention on the Ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances.
Interviews 1994–95, 111, 119.
Indonesia will develop its monitoring network further and establish a Global Atmosphere Watch Station in central Sumatra with funding from the GEF. In addition 34 regional stations will monitor the weather and climatic changes for the different regions in Indonesia. Under the regulation on the cropping system (UU 12/1992) meteorological information will be provided to the agricultural department, the agency for food logistic, the provincial governments, the farmers and the plantations so that they may plan their agricultural activities in accordance with the forecasts. Under the law on spatial management (UU/24/1992), relevant climatological, meteorological and geophysical information will be provided to the department of planning, the provincial governments and private sector so that they can take appropriate decisions. Under the law concerning environment (UU/4/1982), climate related information will be provided to the ministry of environment, the agency for environment impact assessment and radio and television. See also Interview 1994–95, 105.
As one political analyst (1994–95, 24) explained, the government is run in a very hierarchial way. The president is the top man, followed by the Vice President, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Finance, followed by the Ministers of Energy and of Agriculture, and then way down the list comes the Minister of Environment. See also interviews 1994–95, 2, 3.
Interview 1994–95, 74, 81, 87.
Interview 1994–95, 73, 74, 76, 77, 79. Internet address: (http://www.mct.gov.br/gabin/cpmg /climate/programa/ingl/).
Interview 1994–95, 34, 114, 116, 117, 118, 123, 125.
The Eighth Five Year Plan has launched a National Energy Efficiency Programme to save energy by 5000 MW in the electricity sector and 6 Mt in the petroleum sector and to increase the power generating capacity through the use of non-renewable sources of energy to the extent of 750 to 1000 MW. The four ministries of Coal, Petroleum and Natural Gas, Power, and Renewable Energy have all launched modest programmes to increase the efficiency of production.
Interview 1994–95, 49.
These subsidies cost the nation Rs. 110,000 million. “Also curbing populism involves making unpopular decisions. Unfortunately, given the political instability and the out-of-assembly elections, politicians, rather than taking the bull by the horns, are more likely to unleash it” (Chengappa and Rekhi 1995: 44 – 50).
30 million hectares (mh) as protected forests, 19 mh as nature reserves and recreation forests, 34mh as limited production forests, 30 mh as fixed production forests, 31 mh as conversion forests.
In 1994, Rp 400 billion (about US$ 198 million) from the reforestation fund was transferred by presidential decree to the State Airplane Manufacturing Company as an interest free loan. Had the money been used for reforestation about 26.5 million tons of CO2 would have been sequestered equivalent to Indonesia’s carbon emissions from the energy sector. NGOs were unsuccessful in filing a lawsuit against the President as Presidential Decrees cannot be challenged in a court of law (cited in Kuntjoro-Djakti et al. 1995: E13–14). See also interview 1994–95, 115.
The State Forest Corporation has received international recognition for its certification that Java teak comes from ‘sustainable’ managed forests (Peluso 1993: 65). But researchers argue that hard questions need to be answered about the reasons for continued plantation failure and deforestation in the same region (Kuntjoro-Djakti et al. 1995).
E.g. the Environmental Law No. 4 of 1982 and the Presidential Decree No. 29 of 1986 on Environmental Impact Assessment are progressive steps on paper. However, these laws do not empower the government to cancel a project if it has serious environmental impacts.
The conservation programme should reduce the growth of annual energy demand to 3.5% on average. The National Energy Conservation Programme aims at reducing energy consumption by 15% against projected growth (12.5% in household, 14.5% in transportation and 17.75% in the industrial sector). Another relevant aspect is that the plan aims to increase the role of coal in the national energy mix to a level that is commensurate with its potential availability. Thus it is expected that 30% of kerosene consumption in the household sector will be replaced by coal briquette, leading clearly to higher GHG.
Thus for example, there was an arid and semi-arid action plan, a Water Master Plan, a Forestry Master Plan etc. In 1980 an Environmental and Developmental Report was prepared, but recommendations were never really implemented. Since 1991, the government is attempting at supporting the preparation of environmental legislation and there is a controversy as to whether an umbrella legislation should be designed or existing legislations should be strengthened.
Interview 1994–95, 78.
For example, Skutsch et al. (1993) state that four factors explain India’s high C02/GDP ratio; the product mix, the fuel type, its quality and the scale of production. Over the last twenty years, (1) the more energy-intensive sectors (such as iron and steel) have grown faster than the less energy-intensive sectors; (2) 60% of India’s commercial energy is coal-based; (3) India’s coal is of poor quality; (4) About 50% of the total industrial output is contributed by the small-scale industries that are less efficient. At the other end of the scale, Brazil’s emissions are low because of its reliance on hydro-electricity and alcohol. Kenya’s emissions are low because more than 70% of the energy consumption is from non-commercial energy.
For example, the Iron and Steel industry consumes 14% of the total energy in the manufacturing sector while its energy intensity is 9.50 giga calories per tonne as against 6 in ICs. Energy intensity in the aluminium industry was 33 GC/tonne as compared to 9.5GC/tonne in the USA. There is considerable potential to improve the efficiency in these two industries (Skutsch et al. 1993). The energy saving potential in the different sectors is substantial. For several industries in India, investments for a 15% energy saving pay back within a year (Jain 1992: 83). A saving of 25% in energy bills takes four times the capital expenditure but evens out in four years. The same logic probably applies to Indonesia and Kenya.
i.e. to avoid double-counting with deforestation emissions, and because biomass leads to the emissions of GHGs even if it is not used as an energy source.
In India, interviewee (1994–95, 39) explained that 41% of the energy mix is from noncommercial fuels. About 65% of the non-commercial energy is from fuel wood; the rest is made up of wet dung and crop residues. The non-commercial fuels are being substituted by coal and oil but even if they are reduced to 20% in the next decade, they will remain a substantial amount. In Kenya, 72% of energy consumption is from the use of fuel-wood (interview 5). In Indonesia about 40% of the domestic energy supply is from non-commercial sources (e.g. biomass; interview 102). About 50% of the non-commercial energy is derived from agricultural waste and the rest from the trees. Biomass is used primarily by households for cooking purposes (interview 118). In Brazil, biomass (sugarcane, bagasse, firewood, charcoal and Ethyl alcohol) are responsible for more than 60% of the C emissions from primary energy sources (Govt, of Brazil, 1997; data for 1994).
WRI 1994: 268–269.
WRI 1994: 362–363.
WRI 1994: 256–257. Skutsch et al. (1993) argues that since GDP is calculated in US $ and since the dollar exchange rate fluctuates, it makes sense to refer to the purchasing power parity (PPP) of a country.
WRI 1994: 336–337.
WRI 1994: 306–307.
WRI 1994: 296–297.
For example, 50% of the commercial energy in India is electrical power (capacity of 75000 mega watts), of which 70% is thermal, 28% is hydro and 2% is nuclear and non conventional. The share of oil and gas has increased from 1.2% in 1950–51 to 33% in 1990–91, while that of coal has declined from 98% to 61.8%. India produces 90% of its commercial energy requirements and half comes from coal, the rest from domestic and imported oil (EIU 1993), and the government would like to reduce its imports. India has an average shortage of 10% of power and 20% during peak hours (interview 1994–95, 48). In Kenya, hydro power and geothermal energy account for 10 and 11 peta joules respectively. The remaining 83% of the commercial energy consumed is imported. In Brazil, nuclear energy accounts for 16 peta joules, hydro — 784, gas 149, petroleum 1392 and coal 93 peta joules, respectively. 43% of the energy consumed in Brazil is imported. In Indonesia, hydro provides 31, gas — 1819, petroleum 3031, and coal 402 peta joules (WRI 1994).
The transportation sector is a sector with considerable scope. In India, the multipurpose use of roads (i.e. the fact that roads are used by all kinds of vehicles), and their poor quality, outdated and poorly maintained vehicles, unwise modal choices, urban congestion, and inadequate transport infrastructure lead to higher emissions. Fuel consumption is 25% higher for a vehicle moving on gravel or earth surface as compared to an asphalt surface. Less than 50% of the roads are surfaced. The vehicles use biased ply tyres that consume 3–8% more fuel than radial tyres. The energy intensity in Indian tyres is 2.1 mega joules per metric ton per kilometre, which is more than twice the energy intensity in trucks in the OECD countries. Congestion is also a major cause of higher emissions which can be addressed by changing city traffic flow patterns. Air conditioning accounts for a 15% increase in fuel use per trip. Improving fuel-efficiency of vehicles is possible through joint ventures with foreign companies. One aspect that does not require external technological input is improving the transport infrastructure. The railways have become more efficient in India since the partial fuel-switch from steam to diesel (Sathaye and Myers 1986s, Shukla 1993, Sathaye and Walsh 1992).
Interview 1994–95, 23, 44, 119.
Interview 1994–95, 84.
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Gupta, J. (1997). The Domestic Context — Opportunities and Risks. In: The Climate Change Convention and Developing Countries: From Conflict to Consensus?. Environment & Policy, vol 8. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8925-3_3
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