Abstract
This analysis is set out to investigate a particular aspect of severe ecological hazards. For the last two decades or longer, but certainly since Three-Mile-Island and Chernobyl, these hazards seem to have been on a great many peoples’ mindsl and, of course, television screens:2
Citizens of modern industrial societies are presently learning a harsh and discomforting lesson — that the benefits form technology must be paid for not only with money, but with lives. Whether it be the ozone depletion and consequent skin cancer from the use of spray cans, birth defects induced by tranquillizing drugs, or radiation damages from nuclear energy, every technological advance carries some risks of adverse side effects (Fischhoff et al., 1978, p. 128).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Albrecht, P. (1990) Zur Anwendung der Deckungsbeitragsrechnung in der Schadensversicherung, Zeitschrift für die gesamte Versicherungswissenschaft 80, 205–250.
Allais, M. (1953) Le comportement de l’homme rationel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école américaine, Econometrica 21, 503–546.
Arrow, K. J. (1970) Essays in the Theory of Risk-Bearing, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Atkinson, S. E. and Halvorsen, R. (1990) The valuation of risks to life: Evidence from the market for automobiles, Review of Economics and Statistics 30, 133–136.
Barben, D. and Dierkes, M. (1990) Unsicherheiten im Streit um Sicherheit — Zur Relevanz der Kontroversen um die Regulierung technischer Risiken, WZB Discussion Papers 90–105, Berlin.
Bar-Hillel, M. (1973) On the subjective probability of compound events, Organizational Behavior 9, 396–406.
Baumol, W. J. (1972) Economic Theory and Operations Analysis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs (NJ).
Bell, D. (1985) Disappointment in decision-making under uncertainty, Operations Research 33, 1–27.
Berger, M. C., Blomquist, G. C., Kenkel, D., and Tolley, G. S. (1987) Valuing changes in health risks: A comparison of alternative measures, Southern Economic Journal 53, 967–984.
Birkhofer, A. and Köberlein, K. (1987) Sicherheitsrelevante Trends und ihr Einfluß auf den Bedarf an Risikoabsicherung, in Bayerisch Rückversicherungs AG (ed.), Gesellschaft und Unsicherheit, Karlsruhe, pp. 157–172.
Borch, K. (1962) Equilibrium in a reinsurance market, Econometrica 30, 424–444.
Borch, K. (1982) Additive insurance premiums: A note, Journal of Finance 37, 1295–1298.
Brent, R. J. (1991) A new approach to valuing a life, Journal of Public Economics 44, 164–171.
Bressler, B. (1975) A Unified Introduction to Mathematical Economics, Harper & Row, New York.
Broome, J. (1978a) Choice and values in economics, Oxford Economic Papers 30, 313–333.
Broome, J. (1978b) Trying to value a life, Journal of Public Economics 9, 91–100.
Broome, J. (1982) Uncertainty in welfare economics and the value of life, in M. W. Jones-Lee (ed.), The Value of Life and Safety, North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 201–216.
Broome, J. (1984) Uncertainty and fairness, Economic Journal 94, 624–632.
Broome, J. (1985) The economic value of life, Economica 52, 218–219.
Budd, W., Hansen, E., Fort, R., and Rosenman, R. (1989) Risk Externalities in Transporting Radioactive Wastes: A Prospect Cost Analysis, mimeo.
Camerer, C. F. and Kunreuther, H. (1989) Decision processes for low probability events: Policy implications, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8, 565–592.
Carlin, P. S. (1990) Is the Allais paradox robust to a seemingly trivial change of frame?, Economic Letters 34, 241–244.
Conrad, J. (1987) Risiko and Ritual, WZB Discussion Paper 87–14, Berlin.
Dehez, P. and Drèze, J. H. (1982) State-dependent utility, The demand for insurance and the value of life, in M. W. Jones-Lee (ed.), The Value of Life and Safety, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Diacon, S. R. and Carter, R. L. (1984) Success in Insurance, John Murray, London.
Dirrheimer, M. J. and Junghanns, H. (1989) Wettbewerbsanalyse des Lebensversicherungsmarkets, in M. J. Dirrheimer and H. Junghanns (eds.), Versicherungsmärkte im Wettbewerb, Nomos, Baden-Baden, pp. 61–160.
Drukarczyk, J. (1978) Bernoulli-Prinzip, Risiko-Neigung und die Frage nach der Kritisierbarkeit der Axiome, Diskussionsbeitrag der Universität Regensburg (Nr. 105), Regensburg.
Eisen, R., Müller, W., and Zweifel, P. (1990) Unternehmerische Versicherungswirtschaft: Konsequenzen der Deregulierung für Wettbewerbsordnung und Unternehmensführung, Gabler, Wiesbaden.
Ellsberg, D. (1954) Classic and current notions of `measurable utilities’, Economic Journal 64, 528–556.
Ewers, H.-J. and Rennings, K. (1991) Die monetären Schäden eines Super-GAU’s in Biblis, Münster UP Discussion Paper 2, Münster.
Ferreira, Jr., J. and Slesin, L. (1976) Observations on the social impact of large accidents, Technical Report No. 122, Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA.
Finsinger, J. (1982) Die Auswirkungen der steuerlichen Bevorzugung des Lebensversicherungssparens, Finanzarchiv 40, 99–108.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, B., and Lichtenstein, S. (1978) How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits, Policy Science 9, 127–152.
Fishburn, P. C. (1987) Reconsiderations in the foundations of decisions under uncertainty, Economic Journal 97, 825–841.
Fishburn, P. C. (1988) Nonlinear Preferences and Utility Theory, Johns Hopkins UP, Baltimore and London.
Friedman, M. and Savage, L. L. (1948) The utility analysis of choices involving risk, Journal of Political Economy 56, 279–304.
Geipel, R. (1987) Gesellschaftliches Verhalten bezüglich potentieller und tatsächlicher Katastrophenfälle: Die Sicht der Hazard-Forschung, in Bayerische Rückversicherungs AG (ed.), Gesellschaft und Unsicherheit, Karlsruhe, pp. 68–84.
Gerber, H. U. (1979) An Introduction to Mathematical Risk Theory, Irwing, Homewood.
Greer-Wootton, B. (1983) Kontext, Konzepte und Konsequenzen der Risikoforschung, in J. Conrad (ed.), Gesellschaft, Technik und Risikopolitik, Springer, Berlin—Heidelberg—New York, pp. 69–97.
Hanoch, G. and Levy, H. (1969) The efficiency analysis of choices involving risk, Review of Economic Studies 36, 335–346.
Heilmann, W.-R. (1987) Grundbegriffe der Risikotheorie, Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft, Karlsruhe.
Hubert, P., Barny, M. H., and Moatti, J. P. (1991) Election of decision-makers’ preferences for management of major hazards, Risk Analysis 11, 199–206.
Johansson, P.-O. (1990) Valuing environmental damage, Oxford Review of Economic Policy 6, 34–50.
Johnston, R. (1983) Charakteristischen Merkmale der Risikoforschung, in Conrad, J. (ed.), Gesellschaft, Technik und Risikopolitik, Springer, Berlin—Heidelberg—New York, pp. 101–116.
Jones-Lee, M. W. (1974) The value of changes in the probability of death or injury, Journal of Political Economy 82, 835–849.
Jones-Lee, M. W. (1976) The Value of Life, Chicago UP, Chicago.
Jones-Lee, M. W. (1989) The Economics of Safety and Physical Risks, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
Jones-Lee, M. W. and Hammerton, M. (1985) The value of safety: Results of a national life sample survey, Economic Journal 95, 49–72.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk, Econometrica 47, 263–291.
Karni, E. (1990) Optimal insurance: A nonexpected utility analysis, Discussion Paper A-288, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelm Universität, Bonn.
Kaufmann, E-X. (1987) Normen und Institutionen als Mittel zur Bewältigung von Unsicherheiten: Die Sicht der Soziologie, in Bayerische Rückversicherungs AG (ed.), Gesellschaft und Unsicherheit, Karlsruhe, pp. 38–48.
Krelle, W. (1968) Präferenz-und Entscheidungstheorie, Mohr ( Paul Siebeck ), Tübingen.
Linnerooth, J. (1979) The value of human life: A review of the models, Economic Inquiry 17, 52–74.
Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and Wahlström, B. (1991) Application of probabilistic risk assessment: The selection of appropriate tools, Risk Analysis 11, 239–248.
Loomes, G. (1982) Choices involving a risk of death, Scottish Journal of Political Economy 29, 272–282.
Luce, R. D. and Krantz, D. H. (1971) Conditional expected utility, Econometrica 39, 253–269.
Machina, M. J. (1987) Choice under uncertainty: Problems solved and unsolved, Economic Perspectives 1, 121–154.
Maier-Leibniz, H. (1991) Energy issues and misconceptions, Siemens Review 58, 38–42.
Marrow, A. J. (1972) The effect of participation on performance, in A. J. Marrow (ed.), The Failure of Success, American Management Association, N.J.
Marschak, J. (1950) Rational behavior, uncertain prospects, and measurable utility, Econometrica 18, 111–141.
Munier, B. P. (1991) Nobel Laureate: The many other Allais paradoxes, Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, 179–199.
Needleman, L. (1976) Valuing other people’s lives, Manchester School 44, 309–342.
Ng, Y.-K. (1989) Divergence between utility and dollar values of life as one ages: Solving the Paris
Paradox and raising perplexing policy issues, Monash University Seminar Paper 5/89, mimeo.
Pratt, J. W. (1964) Risk aversion in the small and in the large, Econometrica 32, 122–136.
Quemer, J. (1993) An Economic Analysis of Severe Industrial Hazards, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg.
Raiffa, H. (1969) Preferences for multiattributed alternatives, Memorandum RM-5868-DOT RC, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica.
Reuter, H.-P. (1980) Die Lebensversicherung im Steuerrecht, Verlag Neue Wirtschaftsbriefe, Herne/Berlin.
Samuelson, P. A. (1952) Probability theory, utility, and the independence axiom, Econometrica 20, 670–678.
Schelling, T. C. (1968) The life you save may be your own, in S. B. Chase (ed.), Problems in Public Expenditure Analysis, Brookings, Washington, pp. 127–162.
Schneeweiß, H. (1967) Entscheidungskriterien bei Risiko, Springer, Berlin—Heidelberg—New York.
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1982) The expected utility model: Its variants, purposes, evidence and limitations, Journal of Economic Literature 20, 529–563.
Schwake, E. (1987) Überlegungen zu einem risikoadäquaten Marketing als Steuerungskonzeption von Versicherungsunternehmen, Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft, Karlsruhe.
Sinn, H.-W. (1990) Expected utility, µ — a preferences and linear distribution causes: A further result, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 3, 277–281.
Smith, V. K. and Desvousges, W. H. (1987) An empirical analysis of the economic value of risk changes, Journal of Political Economy 95, 89–113.
Smith, V. K. and Desvousges, W. H. (1988) The valuation of environmental risks and hazardous waste policies, Land Economics 64, 211–219.
Starr, C. (1969) Social benefits versus technological risks, Science 165, 1232–1238.
Stiggwell, W. G., von Winterfeldt, D., and John, R. S. (1987) Comparing hierarchical and nonhierarchical methods for electing multiattribute value models, Management Science 33, 442–450.
Strümpel, B. and Peter, M. (1987) Der Sicherheitsbedarf der privaten Haushalte, in Bayerische Rückversicherungs AG (ed.), Gesellschaft und Unsicherheit, Karlsruhe, pp. 117–138.
Ulph, A. (1982) The role of ex ante and ex post decisions in the valuation of life, Journal of Public Economics 18, 265–276.
Viscusi, W. K. and Evans, W. N. (1990) Utility functions that depend on health status: Estimates and economic implications, American Economic Review 80, 353–347.
van Reijen, G. and Vinck, W. (1983) Die Wachhundrolle von Risikoanalysen, in J. Conrad (ed.), Gesellschaft, Technik und Risikopolitik, Springer, Berlin—Heidelberg—New York, pp. 44–52.
von Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O. (1947) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton UP, Princeton (NJ).
Weber, M. and Camerer, C. F. (1987) Recent developments in modelling preferences under risk, OR Spectrum 9, 129–151.
Weinstein, M. C., Shepard, D. S., and Plisken, J. S. (1980) Quarterly Journal of Economics 94, 373–396.
Weinstein, M. C. and Quinn, R. J. (1983) Psychological considerations in valuing health risk reductions, Natural Resources Journal 23, 659–673.
anonymous (1987) Die Deutsche Versicherungswirtschaft, Jahrbuch 1987, Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft, Karlsruhe.
anonymous (1991) Gigantische Keulen, Der Spiegel, 18/1991, 246–247.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Querner, I. (1994). The Need for Alternatives to the Expected Utility Approach in Environmental Risk Economics or ‘Who is Afraid of Russian Roulette?’. In: Pethig, R. (eds) Valuing the Environment: Methodological and Measurement Issues. Environment, Science and Society, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8317-6_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8317-6_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4345-0
Online ISBN: 978-94-015-8317-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive