Abstract
A general survey of reliability and resilience related definitions found in the reliability literature as well as in the water resources literature is presented. The measures presented are general and may be adapted to specific problems. Often, systems are modeled as stationary Markov chains with constant hazard rates, which is not always a realistic assumption, especially under changing climatic conditions. In this paper, the pointwise availability, reliability function, average availability, conditional expected number of failures and restorations in a time interval are derived for the case where the system is a nonstationary continuous-time Markov chain. The nonstationarity is modeled by transition rates that are linear with respect to time.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ang A.H.S. and Tang W.H. (1984). Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design. Vol. II, Wiley, 562 pages.
Barlow R.E. and Proscha, F. (1965). Mathematical Theory of Reliability. Wiley, 256 pages.
Barlow R.E. and Hunter L.C. (1960). System efficiency and reliability. Technometrics, 2 (1): 43–53.
Barlow R.E. and Hunter L.C. (1961). Reliability analysis of a one-unit System. Operations Research, 9: 200–208.
Baxter L.A. (1981). Availability measures for a two-state system. J. Appl. Prob., 18: 227–235.
Bhat U.N. (1972). Elements of Applied Stochastic Processes. Wiley, 414 pages.
Birolini A. (1985). On the Use of Stochastic Processes in Modeling Reliability Problems. Springer-Verlag, 105 pages.
Correia F.N., Santos M.A. and Rodrigues R.R. (1991). Reliability in regional drought studies. Water Resources Engineering Risk Assessment, ed. J. Ganoulis, Springer-Verlag, pp. 43–62.
Duckstein, L. and Bogárdi, I. (1979) ‘Uncertainties in lake management’, Reliability in Water Resources Management, eds. E.A. McBean, K.W. Hipel and T.E. Unny, Water Resources Publications, pp. 253–279.
Duckstein, L., Shrestha, B.P. and Stakhiv, E. Z. (1991) ‘Multicriterion risk and reliability analysis in hydrologic system design’, Water Resources Engineering Risk Assessment, ed. J. Ganoulis, Springer-Verlag, pp. 363–385.
Fiering M.B. (1982a). Alternative indices of resilience. Water Resources Research, 18 (1): 33–39.
Fiering M.B. (1982b). A Screening Model to quantify resilience. Water Resources Research, 18(1): 27–32.
Garriba S., Reina G. and Volta G. (1976). Availability of repairable units when failure and restoration rates age in real time. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, R-25 (2): 88–94.
Hashimoto T. (1980). Robustness, Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability Criteria for Planning Water Resources Systems. Ph.D. Dissertation, Cornell University.
Holling C.S. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Ann. Rev. Ecol. System, 4: 301–321.
Hosford J.E. (1960). Measures of dependability. Operations Research, 8: 53–64.
Jackson B.B. (1975). Markov mixture models for drought lengths. Water Resources Research, 11(1): 64–74.
Kindler J. and Tyszweski S. (1989). Multicriteria evaluation of decision rules in the design of a storage reservoir. Closing the Gap between Theory and Practice, IAHS Publ., 180: 187–201.
Klemes V. (1969). Reliability estimates for a storage reservoir with seasonal input. Journal of Hydrology, 7:198–216.
Kundzewicz Z.W. (1989). Renewal theory criteria of evaluation of water resources systems: Reliability and resilience. Nordic Hydrology, 20: 215–230.
Lie C.H., Hwang C.L. and Tillman F.A. (1977). Availability of maintained systems: A state of the art survey. AIIE Transactions, 9 (3): 247–259.
Moy W.S., Cohon J.L. and Revelle C.S. (1986). A programming model for analysis of the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir. Water Resources Research, 22 (4): 489–498.
Nguyen V.T.V. (1984). A stochastic description of temporal daily rainfall patterns. Canadian Journal of Civil Eng., 11: 234–238.
Osaki Shunji (1985). Stochastic System Reliability Modeling. World Scientific, 285 pages.
Parent E., Lebdi F. and Hurand P. (1991). Stochastic modeling of a water resource system: Analytical techniques versus synthetic approaches. Water Resources Engineering Risk Assessment, ed. J. Ganoulis, Springer-Verlag, pp. 418–434.
Parzen E. (1962). Stochastic Processes. Holden-Day Inc., 324 pages.
Plate E.J. and Duckstein L. (1987). Reliability in hydraulic design. Engineering Reliability and Risk in Water Resources, eds. L. Duckstein and E.J. Plate, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, pp. 27–60.
Ross S.M. (1985). Introduction to Probability Models. Academic Press, 502 pages.
Schult, G.A. (1987). Reliability in multipurpose reservoir operation: Case studies with correlated inflows. Engineering Reliability and Risk in Water Resources, eds. L. Duckstein and E.J. Plate, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, pp. 283–305.
Shamir U. (1987). Reliability of water supply systems. Engineering Reliability and Risk’ in Water Resources, eds. L. Duckstein and E.J. Plate, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, pp. 233–248.
Shooman M.L. (1968). Probabilistic Reliability: An Engineering Approach. McGraw-Hill, 524 pages.
Small M.J. and Morgan DJ. (1986). The relationship between a continuous-time renewal model and a discrete Markov chain of precipitation occurrence. Water Resources Research, 22 (10): 1422–1430.
Truelove A.J. (1961). Strategic reliability and preventive maintenance. Operations Res., 9 (1): 22–29.
Vogel R.M. (1987). Reliability indices for water supply systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 113 (4,): 563–579.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Abi-Zeid, I., Bobée, B. (1994). Some Reliability Measures for Nonstationary Markov Chains. In: Duckstein, L., Parent, E. (eds) Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management. NATO ASI Series, vol 275. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8271-1_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8271-1_8
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4441-9
Online ISBN: 978-94-015-8271-1
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive