Abstract
Risk-based design for mitigating flood losses using extreme value theory can account for a varying or uncertain physical condition, such as the impact of a potential climate change on the return period of catastrophic floods. New results will be presented for characterizing the extreme tails of a flood loss probability distribution when the underlying distribution of flood peak discharge and the flood loss function are uncertain. Taking the conditional expected value of loss — given exceedance of a selected threshold as a measure of the risk of extreme events — the significance of an uncertain physical condition to the risk of extremes is quantifiable using the new results. Design actions can minimize the risk of extreme flood losses while accounting for inexact knowledge of the physical condition.
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© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Lambert, J.H., Li, D., Haimes, Y.Y. (1994). Risk of Extreme Flood Losses under Uncertain Physical Conditions. In: Duckstein, L., Parent, E. (eds) Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management. NATO ASI Series, vol 275. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8271-1_20
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8271-1_20
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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