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In this paper I want to consider the question of whether probability distributions can go chaotic. This question has two aspects—no doubt more—that I shall try to emphasize: (A) might increasing evidence force a probability distribution into random or (pseudorandom) fluctuations? (B) might very small variations in a prior distribution lead to very large and uncontrollable variations in the posterior distribution? I have to say at once that, although I hope to offer some interesting and suggestive examples, I have no decently developed answers to these questions. But I shall try to say something about their significance. As befits a workshop contribution, my talk is no more than a report of incomplete work, intermittently in progress. If I succeed in drawing attention to some little noticed possibilities, I shall be satisfied.
KeywordsSubjective Probability Stable Limit Cycle Approximate Distribution Open Court Publishing Relevant Initial Condition
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