Some Studies of the Little Ice Age of Recent Centuries and its Great Storms

Abstract

The long series of monthly mean temperatures in central England since 1659, produced by the patient researches over many years of the late Professor Gordon Manley, establishes the reality of the colder climate of recent centuries. Estimates of the probable error margins of the values in this series are given. And so the series gives us our most reliable estimate of the magnitude of the temperature depression in England and neighbouring countries. In northern Scotland, southern Norway and Iceland there are indications of a significantly greater depression of the prevailing temperatures. This seems to have been associated with an important deviation of the ocean currents and surface temperatures in north-eastern parts of the Atlantic. The enhanced thermal gradient between latitudes about 50° and 60–65°N in this part of the world is thought to have provided a basis for the development of some greater wind storms in these latitudes than have occurred in most of the last 100 years, though there are signs that in about the last decade or two storminess has been increasing again. Daily synoptic weather maps can be reconstructed which appear to establish the strength of some of the great storms of the Little Ice Age in the North Sea region. The manner of construction of the isobar analysis which permits the wind strength estimates is explained, and some indication of the probable error margins is given.