The Failure of the Medieval Economy and the Slow Emergence of Modern Conditions (1438–1477)

Abstract

In the thirties the agrarian revival in the northern quarters, which had always been unstable, lost its last strength. The traditional industry of the urban centres became hopeless when, in May 1434, monetary reform was carried out successfully in Brabant. The famine of 1437–1438 and the ensuing epidemics were the final blow. Urban decline became very alarming, in the demographic field as well as in others ¹. Since one third of the population of Brabant were town dwellers, this led to a drop in the demand for agricultural produce. On the other hand the monetary reform opened up better prospects for the importation overseas from the granary-zones, which in turn affected the price ². The consequences quickly made themselves felt : from 1438 onwards agricultural prices fell for more than a quarter of a century. The effects of the division of agricultural land and the law of diminishing returns in the exploitation of less fertile soil then showed fully. They had previously been hidden by the rising price level. Now however they explain why the downward price trend led immediately to a hopeless catastrophe for the lower agricultural incomes.