Abstract
Estimates of future precipitation regimes on small watersheds and daily time scales are frequently required in hydrologic analyses. Such estimates must be based on projections from coarse resolution global climate models combined with analyses of current observational data. Possible combination methods are reviewed. One approach is to link historical precipitation records to observed and modelled atmospheric circulation patterns. This requires knowledge of the spatial scale of daily precipitation. A method of establishing this scale as a function of location, season, and topography is developed and linked to circulation patterns. The method relates the conditional probabilities of precipitation occurrence at station pairs to their inter-station distance. It was tested for mid-latitude continental interior and coastal conditions, Colorado and North Carolina, USA respectively. Separate analyses were undertaken for summer and winter and for mountainous and flat regions. A logarithmic relationship between inter-station correlation and distance was established. Storms in Colorado were less frequent and smaller than in North Carolina, while for the latter state winter storms were significantly larger than summer ones. Mountainous regions tended to have more widespread storms than did flat areas. The spatial scale varied little with circulation in Colorado but meridional flow over North Carolina led to more frequent and localized storms than did zonal flow, especially in winter. Thus this simple method allows specification of the impact of circulation changes on the scale of precipitation, and hence some indications of possible consequences of climate change.
Keywords
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ayers, M.A., Wolock, D.M., McCabe, G.J., and Hay, L.E. (1993) Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change, Open File Report 92-52, United States Geological Survey, West Trenton, New Jersey, 68 pp.
Berndtsson, R. (1989) Topographical and coastal influence on spatial precipitation patterns in Tunisia, International. J. Climatology 9, 357–369.
Bryson, R.A., and Hare, F.K. (1974) The Climates of North America, in R. A. Bryson and F. K. Hare (eds.), Climates of North America, Amsterdam-London-New York, Elsevier, 1–48.
Chen, R.E., and Robinson, P.J. (1991) Generating scenarios of local surface temperature using time series methods, J. Climate 4, 723–732.
Cohen, S.J. (1986) Impact of CO2-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes basin, Climatic Change 8, 135–153.
Cox, D.R., and Isham, V. (1988) A simple spatial-temporal model of rainfall, Proceedings Royal Society London, A 415, 317–328.
Crane, R.G., and Barry, R.G. (1988) Comparison of the MSL synoptic pressure patterns of the Arctic as observed and simulated by the GISS general circulation model, Meteorology Atmospheric Physics 39, 169–183.
Dickinson, R.E., Errico, R.M., Giorgi, F., and Bates, G.T. (1989) A regional climate model for the western United States, Climatic Change 15, 383–422.
Giorgi, F., Bates, G.T., and Nieman, S.J. (1992) Simulation of the arid climate of the southern Great Basin using a regional climate model, Bulletin American Meteorological. Society 73, 1807–1822.
Gleick, P.H. (1987) Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases, Climatic Change 10, 137–161.
Hatch, W.L. (1983) Selective guide to climatic data sources, Key to meteorological records documentation 4.11, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC. np.
Henderson, K.G., and Robinson, P.J. (1994) Relationships between the Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns and precipitation events in the south-eastern United States, International J. Climatology 14, 307–323.
Hevesi, J.A., Istok, J.D., and Flint, A.L. (1992) Precipitation estimation in mountainous terrain using multivariate geostatistics. Part I: Structural analysis, J. Applied Meteorology 31, 661–676.
Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J., and Ephraums, J.J. (1990) Climatic change: The IPCC scientific assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 365 pp.
Kalkstein, L.S., Dunner, P.C., and Vose, R.S. (1990) Detection of climatic change in the western North America Arctic using a synoptic climatological approach, J. Climate 3, 1153–1167.
Kim, J.-W., Chang, J.-T., Baker, N.L., Wilks, D.S., and Gates, W.L. (1984) The statistical problem of climate inversion: Determination of the relationship between local and large-scale climate, Monthly Weather Review 112, 2069–2077.
Klein, W.H., and Bloom, H.J. (1992) Specification and prediction of monthly and seasonal precipitation amounts in California and Arizona river drainage basins, International. J. Climatology 12, 721–732.
Leathers, D.J., Yarnal, B., and Palecki, M.A. (1991) The Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern and United States climate. Part I: Regional temperature and precipitation associations, J. Climate 4, 517–528.
Robinson, P.J. (1994) Precipitation regime changes over small watersheds, in V. Barnett and K.F. Turkman (eds.) Statistics for the environment, volume 2, Chichester, John Wiley and Sons, 43–59.
Robinson, P.J., and Finkelstein, P.L. (1991) The development of impact-oriented climate scenarios, Bulletin American Meteorological. Society 72, 481–490.
Robinson, P.J., and Henderson, K.G. (1992) Precipitation events in the South-east United States of America, International. J. Climatology 12, 701–720.
Robinson, P.J., Samel, A.N., and Madden, G. (1993) Comparisons of modelled and observed climate for impact assessments, Theoretical Applied Climatology 48, 75–87.
Ropelewski, C.F., and Halpert, M.S. (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Monthly Weather Review 115, 1606–1626.
Ropelewski, C.F., and Halpert, M.S. (1989) Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation, J. Climate 2, 268–284.
Sharon, D. (1979) Correlation analysis of the Jordan Valley rainfall field., Monthly Weather Review 107, 1042–1053.
Sumner, G.N. (1983) The use of correlation linkages in the assessment of daily rainfall patterns, J. Hydrology 66, 169–182.
Taljaard, J.J. (1986) Change of rainfall distribution and circulation patterns over southern Africa in summer, J. Climatology 6, 579–592.
Wallace, J.M., and Gutzler, D.S. (1981) Teleconnections in the 500mb geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter, Monthly Weather Review 109, 784–812.
Yarnal, B., and Leathers, D.J. (1988) Relationships between interdecadal and interannual climatic variations and their effect on Pennsylvania climate, Annals Association American Geographers 78, 624–641.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1996 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Robinson, P.J. (1996). The Influence of Topography, Season and Circulation on Spatial Patterns of Daily Precipitation. In: Jones, J.A.A., Liu, C., Woo, MK., Kung, HT. (eds) Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change. The GeoJournal Library, vol 38. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-5676-9_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-5676-9_8
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-6394-4
Online ISBN: 978-94-011-5676-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive