Abstract
According to Kovaneva (1982), who investigated the surface air temperature distribution in years with high global temperature values, the summer temperature in the Pamirs and TyanShan will fall by 0.5°C in the event of a 1°C global warming of mean annual air temperature. Precipitation will increase by 10–15% according to Groisman (1981). This will lead to the descent of the equilibrium line on the glaciers by 120–170 m. The boundary between the warm and the cold ice-formation zones and the upper limit of the runoff from the glaciers will descend by 90–150 m. As a result, the area of the cold firn zone will increase by 18% at the expense of the ablation zone. The decrease in the natural glacier runoff is estimated. The following data were taken into account: the altitudinal distribution of the glacier surface, the dependence of melting on the summer air temperature and the refreezing of melted water in the firn bodies in different ice-formation zones. The decrease in the total glacier runoff due to assumed climate change appears to be equal to 15%. Any artificial increase of glacier runoff could not balance this decrease in the natural runoff. The potential for such artificial increase would be less by 0.2 km3. The share of accumulation area in the total runoff would be bigger than now.
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References
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Krenke, A.N., Kravchenko, G.N. (1996). Impact of Future Climate Change on Glacier Runoff and the Possibilities for Artificially Increasing Melt Water Runoff in the Aral Sea Basin. In: Jones, J.A.A., Liu, C., Woo, MK., Kung, HT. (eds) Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change. The GeoJournal Library, vol 38. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-5676-9_14
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-5676-9_14
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