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Air Pollution in the Ural Mountains pp 315–339Cite as

Uncertainty Assessment of Biogenic Emissions Estimates and Its Impact on Ozone Attainment Control Strategy Selection

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Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((ASEN2,volume 40))

Abstract

The regulatory community continues to issue guidance on air quality planning which encourages planners to rely on best, single value emissions estimates for use in the air quality modeling process. Little if any guidance is issued on how to assess and use uncertain emissions estimates to evaluate control strategy selection. In particular, biogenic emissions are interesting in that they are highly uncertain, and they are unaffected by traditional anthropogenic control technologies. Yet, biogenic emissions impact air quality particularly impacting the effectiveness of stringent controls on volatile organic compounds. Therefore, because emissions controls cost billions of dollars annually, it is prudent to investigate the impacts that uncertainty in biogenic emissions estimates (and in general, all emissions estimates) has on emissions control scenarios.

In this study, the consequences are shown of how improved biogenic emissions estimates impact air quality modeling results and the degree to which uncertain biogenic emissions affect emissions control strategy selection in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of Los Angeles, California. First, the ranges in the biogenic emissions estimates due to uncertainty in data and model parameters are as follows (all values reported at the 95% confidence interval): isoprene ranges from 0.03 to 3.7 times the expected value (1800 tons/day); nitric oxide ranges from 0.22 to 72 times the expected value (99 tons/day); other volatile organic compounds range from 0.54 to 1.7 times the expected value (980 tons/day); and monoterpenes range from 0.54 to 1.8 times the expected value (700 tons/day). Second, the improved biogenic emissions estimates (50th percentile) for the SoCAB increase the modeled ozone peak from 178 ppb (base case simulation with previous biogenic emissions estimates) to 216 ppb for August 29, 1987 which is the last day of the three day episode. Finally, when the uncertain biogenic emissions estimates are propagated through a photochemical model, the results indicate that NOx control strategies are favored over VOC control strategies. This finding contradicts the recent findings by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) which show that VOC emissions controls will preferentially help mitigate the ozone problem in the SoCAB.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Engineering and Public, Carnegie Mellon University, Policy5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA

    J. G. Wilkinson

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  1. Department of Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA

    Igor Linkov  & Richard Wilson  & 

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Wilkinson, J.G. (1998). Uncertainty Assessment of Biogenic Emissions Estimates and Its Impact on Ozone Attainment Control Strategy Selection. In: Linkov, I., Wilson, R. (eds) Air Pollution in the Ural Mountains. NATO ASI Series, vol 40. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-5208-2_28

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-5208-2_28

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-6192-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-011-5208-2

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