Abstract
The state of the art of the sea level change has been analyzed considering long term change and short term fluctuation. The relative long term change has been considered as the sum of the eustatic change (caused by steric change in the volume of ocean water for thermal expansion, glacioeustatic in the mass of ocean water, change in the volume of ocean basins and geoidal change) and the absolute land elevation change (caused by down-lift by regional and local subsidence, up- lift by tectonic movement and up-lift by unloading of continental shelves). Eustatic mean sea level in the past (during Quaternary, in the past 100 years) has been considered and mean sea level in the next 100 years has been estimated by the extrapolation from near past trend (1.2 mm/year) and forecasting models (3÷4 times near past observed trend at 2100) and mainly considering the greenhouse effect as a forcing factor. The forecasting models of eustatic rise due to greenhouse effect (depending on socio economic models, gas emission models, gas cycle models, climate models and eustatic sea level rise models) have also been considered and combined with the scenarios of eustatic sea level rise. The proposed sea-level rise are those predicted from IPCC 92 “scenario a” [33] according to which the mean value of the sea level change is about 50 cm within 2100. The sea level fluctuation has been considered on the basis of the following main causes: tides, seiches, wind waves and storm surges, where storm surges are the results of the combined effect of baric depression and induced winds.
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Betti, I., Morelli, M. (1998). Prediction of Mean Sea Level Rise in the Upper Adriatic Sea. In: Gambolati, G. (eds) CENAS. Water Science and Technology Library, vol 28. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-5147-4_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-5147-4_2
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