Statistical analysis of population fluctuations

Abstract

In Chapter 2, I have shown various patterns in population dynamics generated by different types of model structures and parameter values. I shall now reverse the procedure and discuss how to guess the generating mechanism of an observed series. This is a much more demanding, challenging task, and we must admit that no method is as powerful or as widely applicable as we wish it to be. We need to utilize all available information, statistical and nonstatistical, such as life-history patterns, food-web structure and environmental influences. In this chapter I shall concentrate on statistical methods and discuss their merits and limitations. Many observed population time series may not be long enough to apply the statistical methods introduced here. Nonetheless, learning the methods will enrich perception of animal population dynamics.