Abstract
Responses to inputs such as nitrogen (N) fertilizer can vary dramatically from one season to the next in association with the rainfall variability in semi-arid climates. Traditional agricultural experimentation has examined fixed strategies of fertilizer management, but farmers frequently make tactical adjustments to their management in the light of what they perceive as information relevant to the prospects for the forthcoming crop. In this paper, we use a crop simulation model to examine the value of changing N fertilizer application rates in line with predictions of likely response to fertilizer based on the date of season onset. The analysis, using the CERES-Maize model, is centred on maize production in Machakos, a semi-arid district in eastern Kenya.
The timing of sowing relative to defined onset criteria was examined, and the value of minimizing delays in sowing after onset quantified. Assuming sowing takes place at onset, a set strategy based on 45 kg N ha-1 maximizes returns, but nil or negative returns were associated with N fertilizer inputs in 40% of seasons.
The date of season onset was found to be a useful predictor of response to fertilizer inputs. A conditional strategy in which N fertilizer application was adjusted in relation to onset-date, resulted in only a small increase in expected gross margin. As far as production was concerned, the use of some fertilizer, irrespective of seasonal outlook, was the highest priority.
The impact of tactical adjustments in fertilizer use on the associated risks were assessed using a number of criteria. The results indicate that conditional strategies reduced the risk of negative gross margin and may be valued by extremely risk-averse farmers contemplating fertilizer use.
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© 1993 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Keating, B.A., McCown, R.L., Wafula, B.M. (1993). Adjustment of nitrogen inputs in response to a seasonal forecast in a region of high climatic risk. In: de Vries, F.P., Teng, P., Metselaar, K. (eds) Systems approaches for agricultural development. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2842-1_14
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2842-1_14
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