Abstract
The procedure of “adaptive” or “exponential” forecasting is based on weighted averages of two sources of evidence; one is the latest evidence (the most recent observation), the other the value computed one period before. As such, it is an easy, quick and cheap method; very little information is needed for a forecast; also, the most recent information is used. Reference is made to Brown (1959), Winters (1960a, 1960b) and Muth (1960) for contributions to this method.
Reprinted by permission, “Some Observations on Adaptive Forecasting,” H. Theil and S. Wage, Management Science, 10, (Jan. 1964), 198–206, copyright 1964, The Institute of Management Science, 290 Westminster Street, Providence, RI 02903, U.S.A.
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Reprinted by permission, “Some Observations on Adaptive Forecasting,” H. Theil and S. Wage, Management Science, 10, (Jan. 1964), 198–206, copyright 1964, The Institute of Management Science, 290 Westminster Street, Providence, RI 02903, U.S.A.
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© 1992 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Theil, H., Wage, S. (1992). Some Observations on Adaptive Forecasting. In: Raj, B., Koerts, J. (eds) Henri Theil’s Contributions to Economics and Econometrics. Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, vol 24. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2410-2_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2410-2_7
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