A detailed simulation approach to world energy modelling: the SIBILIN and POLES experiences

  • Patrick Criqui
Part of the International Studies in Economic Modelling book series (ISIM)


The 1970s and 1980s have been marked by drastic changes in the international energy markets. The early 1990s have seen the return of the oil dependency problem, but new issues are arising, in particular the concern for the planet’s global environment. To understand these changes and to identify appropriate strategies for the new challenges, structured models, relying on good quality information and retrospective analyses, are highly valuable tools. In this paper, we describe the effort that the IEPE (Institut d’Economie et de Politique de l’Energie in Grenoble) has undertaken to attain these goals. In the first part, we analyse the specific approach developed, that of disaggregated models for the simulation of the world energy system. We then describe the structure and results of the SIBILIN (Simulation des BILans énergétiques INternationaux) model, which had been developed to carry out medium-term oil market scenarios. The third and final part presents the POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) model, presently being built to analyse long-term energy scenarios and their potential consequences on the global environment.


World Energy Capacity Utilization Rate Final Energy Demand National Energy Policy Electricity Generation Plant 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Al-Chalabi, F. J. (1988) OPEC and the Present Structural Limitations on Its Oil Price Control. OPEC Review, 12, 115–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bourrelier, P. H., Boy de la Tour, X. and Lacour, J. J. (1990) L’Energie à long terme: mobilisation ou laissez-faire? Revue de l’Energie, no. 418, February, pp. 81–117.Google Scholar
  3. Criqui, P. and Kousnetzoff, N. (1987) Energie 1995, Après les chocs. Economica, Paris, p. 253.Google Scholar
  4. Dumoulin, H. (1988) Petroleum Resources in Non-OPEC Developing Countries, Analysis of Profitability and Risk. Petroleum Economics Limited-Pacific, London, June, p. 27.Google Scholar
  5. Edmonds, J. and Reilly, J. M. (1985) Global Energy: Assessing the Future. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 317.Google Scholar
  6. EMF (Energy Modelling Forum) (1982) World Oil, EMF Report 6, Standford University Energy Modelling Forum, Stanford, Ca, p. 111.Google Scholar
  7. Frisch, J. R. (1989) Horizons énergétiques mondiaux 2000–2020. Technip-Conférence Mondiale de l’Energie, Paris, p. 378.Google Scholar
  8. Gately, D. (1984) A Ten-Year Retrospective: OPEC and the World Oil Market. Journal of Economic Literature, 22, 1100–14.Google Scholar
  9. Goldemberg, J., Johansson, T. B., Reddy, A. K. N. et al. (1988) Energy for a Sustainable World. Wiley Eastern, New Delhi, p. 517.Google Scholar
  10. Grinevald, J. (1990) L’effet de serre de la Biosphère. De la révolution thermo-industrielle à l’écologie globale. Stratégies énergétiques, biosphère et société, no. 1, pp. 9–34.Google Scholar
  11. Manne, A. S. (1990) Global 2100: An Almost Consistent Model of CO2 Emissions Limits, Stanford University, Stanford, Ca, February, p. 20.Google Scholar
  12. Martin, J. M. (1988) L’intensité énergétique de l’activité économique dans les pays industrialisés: les évolutions de très longue période Economies et Sociétés, series E, no. 4, April, pp. 9–27.Google Scholar
  13. Nordhaus, W. D. and Yohe, G. W. (1983) Future Paths of Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions, in Changing Climate, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp. 87–153.Google Scholar
  14. Piatier, A. (1989) 1980–1990: dix ans de surf. Economie et Sociétés, series F, no. 31, March, pp. 5–41.Google Scholar
  15. Simon, H. A. (1962) The Architecture of Complexity, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 106, 467–82.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 1992

Authors and Affiliations

  • Patrick Criqui

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations