Image 2.0 pp 37-78 | Cite as

Modeling the Global Society-Biosphere-Climate System: Part 2: Computed Scenarios



This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCCs IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.


climate change global change integrated assessment integrated models scenario analysis carbon cycle biofuels 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Addiscot, T.M., Whitemore, A.P. and D.S. Powlson: 1991, Farming, Fertilizers and the Nitrate Problem, CAB International, 170 pp.Google Scholar
  2. Alcamo, J., G.J.J Kreileman, M.S. Krol and G. Zuidema: 1994, Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system, Part 1. Model description and testing, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  3. Clark, W.C.: 1986, Sustainable development of the biosphere: themes for a research program, In: W.C. Clark and R.E. Munn (eds), Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, Cambridge University Press, 491 pp.Google Scholar
  4. Edmonds, J. and J. Reilly: 1985, Global Energy: Assessing the Future, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  5. de Haan, B.J., M. Jonas, O. Klepper, J. Krabec, M.S. Krol, and K. Olendrzynski: 1994, An atmosphere-ocean model for integrated assessment of global change, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  6. Grübler, A., Nakicenovic, N., 1991, Evolution of Transport Systems: Past and Future, IIASA Research Report 91-8, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.Google Scholar
  7. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 1990a, The IPCC Impacts Assessment, WMO/UNEP. Australian Government Publishing Service: Canberra.Google Scholar
  8. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 1990b, The IPCC Response Strategies, WMO/UNEP.Google Scholar
  9. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 1990c, The IPCC Scientific Assessment WMO/UNEP, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  10. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 1992, J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callendar and S.K. Varney (eds), Climate Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge Univ. Press.Google Scholar
  11. Johansson, T.B., H. Kelly, A.K.N Reddy, and R.H. Williams: 1993a. Renewable fuels and electricity for a growing World economy, in: Johansson, T.B., H. Kelly, A.K.N Reddy, and R.H. Williams (eds), Renewable Energy, Island Press: Washington D.C. pp. 1–72.Google Scholar
  12. Johansson, T.B., H. Kelly, A.K.N Reddy, and R.H. Williams,: 1993b. A renewables-intensive global energy scenario, in: Johansson, T.B., H. Kelly, A.K.N Reddy, and R.H. Williams (eds), Renewable Energy, Island Press: Washington D.C, pp. 1071–1142.Google Scholar
  13. Klein Goldewijk, K., J.G. van Minnen, G.J.J Kreileman, M. Vloedbeld, and R. Leemans: 1994, Simulating the C flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  14. Kreileman, G.J.J. and A.F. Bouwman: 1994, Computing land use emissions of greenhouse gases, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  15. Krol, M.S. and H.J. van der Woerd: 1994, Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  16. Leemans, R. and G.J. van den Born: 1994, Determining the potential distribution of vegetation, crops and agricultural productivity, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 75 (this volume).Google Scholar
  17. Maddison, A.: 1991, Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development — A Long Run Comparative View, Oxford University Press, 109 pp.Google Scholar
  18. Mikolajewicz, U., B.D. Santer and E. Maier-Reimer: 1990, Ocean response to greenhouse warming, Nature, 345: 589–593.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Pepper, W., Leggett, J., Swart, Wasson, J. Edmonds, J., Mintzner, I.: 1992, Emission Scenarios for the IPCC, An Update’, Unpublished Report Prepared for IPCC Working Group I.Google Scholar
  20. Swisher, J.: 1993, Bottom-up comparisons of CO2 storage and costs in forestry and biomass energy projects, Biomass and Bioenergy, submitted.Google Scholar
  21. U.S. EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency): 1990, Policy options for stabilizing global climate, Draft Report to Congress.Google Scholar
  22. de Vries, H.J.M, J.G.J Olivier, R.A. van den Wijngaart, G.J.J Kreileman, and A.M.C Toet: 1994, Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  23. Woods, J. and D.O. Hall: 1993, Biofuels as a sustainable substitute for fossil fuels: their potential for CO 2 emissions reduction, A Study for Agriculture and Energy Section of FAO.Google Scholar
  24. World Energy Council: 1993, Renewable Energy Resources: Opportunities and Constraints, 1990-2020, World Energy Council.Google Scholar
  25. WRI (World Resources Institute): 1990, World Resources 1990-91, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 383 pp.Google Scholar
  26. Zuidema, G., G.J. van den Born, G.J.J Kreileman and J. Alcamo: 1994, Simulation of global land cover changes as affected by economic factors and climate, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 1994

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM)Bilthoventhe Netherlands

Personalised recommendations