Advertisement

Image 2.0 pp 1-35 | Cite as

Modeling the Global Society-Biosphere-Climate System: Part 1: Model Description and Testing

Chapter

Abstract

This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5° x 0.5° latitude-longitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.

Keywords

integrated modeling integrated assessment greenhouse gas emissions global change climate change land cover change C cycle 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Alcamo, J.G.J. van den Bom, A.F., Bouwman, B.J., de Haan, K. Klein Goldewijk, O. Klepper, J. Krabec, R. Leemans, J.G.J Olivier, A.M.C Toet, H.J.M de Vries and H.J. van der Woerd: 1994, Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system, Part 2: Computed scenarios, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  2. Broecker, W.S. and T.H. Peng: 1982, Tracers in the sea, Eldigo Press.Google Scholar
  3. Bouwman, A.F., L. van Staalduinen and R.J. Swart: 1992, The IMAGE land use model to analyze trends in land use related emissions, Report 222901009, RIVM, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.Google Scholar
  4. CEC (Commission of the European Communities), Directorate General for Environment, Nuclear Safety, and Civil Protection: 1992, Development of a framework for the evaluation of policy options to deal with the greenhouse effect.Google Scholar
  5. Detwiler, R.P. and C.A.S Hall: 1988, Tropical forests and the global carbon cycle, Science, 239: 42–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. FAO (World Food and Agriculture Organization): 1978, Report on the agro-ecological zones project. FAO: Rome.Google Scholar
  7. FAO: 1982, Tropical forest resources. Google Scholar
  8. FAO: 1992, AGROSTAT-PC, Computerized information series: User manual, Population, Land use, Production, Trade, Food balance sheets, Forest products. Edition October 1992, FAO, Rome.Google Scholar
  9. FAO: 1993, Summary of the Final Report of the Forest Resources Assessment 1990 for the Tropical World, FAO, Rome, Italy.Google Scholar
  10. Goudriaan, J.: 1992, Biosphere structure, carbon sequestering potential and the atmospheric 14C carbon record, J. Exp. Bot., 43: 1111–1119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Goudriaan, J., and P. Ketner: 1984, A simulation study for the global carbon cycle including man’s impact on the biosphere, Clim. Change, 6: 167–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. de Haan, B.J., M. Jonas, O. Klepper, J. Krabec, M.S. Krol and K. Olendrzynski, K.: 1994, An atmosphere-ocean model for integrated assessment of global change, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  13. Houghton, R.A., J.E. Hobbie, J.M. Melillo, B. Moore, B.J. Petterson, G.R. Shaver and G.M. Woodwell: 1983, Changes in the carbon content of terrestrial biota and soils between 1860 and 1980: a net release of CO2 to the atmosphere, Ecol. Monogr., 53: 235–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. IPCC: 1990, J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums (eds), Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge Univ. Press.Google Scholar
  15. IPCC: 1992, J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callender and S.K. Varney (eds), Climate Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge Univ. Press.Google Scholar
  16. Klein Goldewijk, K., J.G. van Minnen, G.JJ. Kreileman, M. Vloedbeld and R. Leemans: 1994, Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  17. Klepper, O., B.J. de Haan, P. Saager and M.S. Krol: 1993, Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2; mechanisms and modeling, Report 481507004, RIVM, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.Google Scholar
  18. Kreileman, G.J.J. and A.F. Bouwman: 1994, Computing land use emissions of greenhouse gases, Wat. Air Soil Pollut. 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  19. Krol, M.S.: 1994, Uncertainty analysis for the computation of greenhouse gas concentrations in IMAGE, In: J. Grasman and G. van Straten (eds), Predictability and Nonlinear Modeling in Natural Sciences and Economics, Kluwer.Google Scholar
  20. Krol, M.S. and HJ. van der Woerd: 1994, Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  21. Leemans, R. and G.J. van den Born: 1994, Determining the potential global distribution of natural vegetation, crops, and agricultural productivity, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  22. Leemans, R. and W. Cramer: 1991, The IIASA database for mean monthly values of temperature, precipitation and cloudiness on a global terrestrial grid, Research Report RR-91-18, International Institute of Applied Systems Analyses, Laxenburg, pp. 61.Google Scholar
  23. MacKay, R.M. and M.A.K Khahil: 1991, Theory and development of a one dimensional time dependent radiative convective climate model, Chemosphere, 22: 383–417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald: 1987, Large scale changes of soil wetness induced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, J. Am. Sci., 44: 1211–1235.Google Scholar
  25. Myers, N.: 1980, Report of survey of conversion rates in tropical moist forests, National Research Council, Washington D.C., USA.Google Scholar
  26. NRP (Dutch National Research Program on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change): 1993, Report of International Review Meeting IMAGE 2.0, Amsterdam, NRP Report 00-09, NRP, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.Google Scholar
  27. Olson, J., J.A. Watts and L.J. Allison: 1985, Major World Ecosystem Complexes Ranked by Carbon in Live Vegetation: A Database, NDP-017, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.Google Scholar
  28. Oort, A.H.: 1983, Global Atmospheric Circulation Statistics, 1958-1973. NOAA Prof. Pap. 14., U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Rockville, Md. U.S.A.Google Scholar
  29. Peng, L., M.-D. Chou and A. Arking: 1982, Climate studies with a multi-layer energy balance model. Part I: model description and sensitivity to the solar constant, J. Atm. Sci., 39(12): 2639–2656.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Prentice, I.C., W. Cramer, S.P. Harrison, R. Leemans, R.A. Monserud and A. Solomon: 1992, Aglobal biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties, and climate, J. Biogeography., 19: 117–134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Rotmans, J.: 1990, IMAGE: an integrated model to assess the greenhouse effect, Kluwer.Google Scholar
  32. Rotmans, J., H. de Boois and R.J. Swart: 1990, An integrated model for the assessment of the greenhouse effect, Clim. Change, 16: 331–356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Sedjo, R.A.: 1992, Temperate forest ecosystems in the global carbon cycle, Ambio, 21: 274–277.Google Scholar
  34. Tans, P.P., I.Y. Fung and T. Takahashi: 1990, Observational constraints on the global atmospheric CO2 budget, Science, 247: 1431–1438.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Thompson, A.M., R.W. Stewart, M.A. Owens and J.A. Herwehe: 1989, Sensitivity of Tropospheric Oxidants to Global Chemical and Climate Change, Atm. Env., 23(3): 519–532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. de Vries, H.J.M., R.A. van den Wijngaart, G.J.J Kreileman, J.G.J Olivier and A.M.C Toet: 1994, Amodel for calculating regional energy use and emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar
  37. WRI: 1992, World Resources, 1992-1993. A Guide to the Global Environment. Toward Sustainable Development.Google Scholar
  38. Zuidema, G., G.J. van den Born, G.J.J Kreileman and J. Alcamo: 1994, Simulation of global land cover changes as affected by economic factors and climate, Wat. Air Soil Pollut., 76 (this volume).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 1994

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM)Bilthoventhe Netherlands

Personalised recommendations