Diffusion and Potential Analyses as Part of Programme Evaluations: Exemplified in the Promotion of Laser Technology and the Promotion of Thin-Film Technology

Abstract

Laser technology and thin-film technology are seen as key technologies since they are important for a number of industrial sectors where they will not only improve or substitute existing technologies, but also serve as the basis for completely new applications, products and markets. The German Ministry for Research and Technology (BMFT) has provided financial aid for laser and thin-film technology. For the promotional concepts, provisions call for an examination of the objectives and instruments of the programme. One important element of this evaluation is the diffusion and potential analysis in which especially the problem context and the framework conditions for industry and science are analysed in the relevant areas of technology. The central questions of diffusion and potential analysis deal with diffusion status, factors influencing diffusion, diffusion potential, and the competitive position of the relevant technology fields. Here, as a rule, there is no secondary statistical data. For this reason these analyses require a mixture of primary methods to achieve investigation objectives. The analyses show that both technologies have achieved a significant diffusion breadth in the manufacturing industry as a whole, but the diffusion depth in individual industries and product groups is often very slight. The laser technology example shows that despite the fundamental maturity and advantages of a new technology, major barriers exist that affect further diffusion. The panel survey of 1989 indicated a diffusion potential for laser applications in material processing of about 5,700 firms. This estimation is based on the assessments of the queried firms with regard to application possibilities in the coming five years. Both technologies still have considerable research potential. Thereby, the future support should utilize the research and innovation potential of small and medium-sized firms more strongly than has been the case. Diffusion and potential analyses are an important basis of information for promotion decisions in the area of market-oriented technologies. However, presently there are no general, theoretical terms of reference for programme evaluations which could serve as a basis for evaluation design.