Sources of Hydrochlorofluorocarbons, Hydrofluorocarbons and Fluorocarbons and their Potential Emissions during the Next Twenty Five Years

Abstract

In common with CFCs, the classes of compounds in the title have wholly anthropogenic sources. CFCs are used for refrigeration, air-conditioning, foam blowing, solvent cleaning and propelling aerosols and, in each case, equipment has been designed to make the most efficient use of the properties of individual compounds. There is little scope for substitution, even between CFCs. The potential for replacement of these historic uses by substitute technologies - ammonia, hydrocarbons, carbon dioxide and HCFCs, HFCs and FCs - is examined. It is shown that the quantities required are influenced as much by improvements to containment as they are by the primary demands from society.

Based on analysis of the historic data; the declared manufacturing capacities, and the anticipated effects of international controls, the potential production and emissions of the principal HCFCs and HFCs are calculated for the next twenty five years. While consumption of HCFCs will fall nearly to zero, it would appear that demand for HFC-134a could double, from approximately 150,000 to 300,000 tonnes/year between 1995 and 2020. Over the same timescale demand for HFC-32 could rise to 90,000 tonnes/year. The potential future emissions of other HCFCs, HFCs and FCs which are expected to be used less widely, or for which there is no current consumption base from which to make meaningful extrapolations, are also discussed.