Summary
Using SIM-PEL, a comprehensive model for the pelagic compartment of lake ecosystems, we analyse synergistic toxicant effects in lake ecosystems. We show, that — even for a rather simple model — model predictions may be strongly dependent on the time horizon of the prediction and on the quality of input parameters. For longer time spans, small errors in parameter estimation may lead to qualitatively wrong prediction of toxicant effects. Monte Carlo simulations allow to take errors in parameter estimation into account, but they need rather good estimates of parameter variance.
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© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Poethke, H.J., Oertel, D., Seitz, A. (1994). Parameter Sensitivity and the Quality of Model Predictions. In: Grasman, J., van Straten, G. (eds) Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_32
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_32
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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