Summary
Using census data of spruce needleminer populations and their natural enemies from one stand of Norway spruce trees to estimate the parameters of a complex simulation model and two simple theoretical models, we predict spruce needleminer abundance in three other stands and compare the predictions with census data. The simple theoretical models were as good as the complex model in forecasting needleminer population numbers one year ahead. The reason may be that simple theoretical models capture the dominant structure of the dynamic system in an unbiased way.
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© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Berryman, A.A., Munster-Swendsen, M. (1994). Simple Theoretical Models and Population Predictions. In: Grasman, J., van Straten, G. (eds) Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_19
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_19
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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