Forecasts Applications for Defences from Floods

Abstract

As defined by (1975), a hydrological forecast is the prior estimate of future states of hydrological variables in real time, and as such is not to be confused with hydrological computations (predictions) for planning and design purposes. While the actual use of the words “forecast” and “prediction” may be a matter of semantics or convenience, the substance of technical activities connected with each is basically different. Both activities require historic data (time series) and may use the same or similar methods of hydrological analysis and modelling. However, a hydrological forecast comprises additional technical activities connected with other hydrological and nonhydrological subjects, such as network design, data processing, remote-sensing techniques, telecommunications, operational use of computers, etc. In view of this, the subject of a hydrological forecast should not be viewed as one particular hydrological technique but as an economic activity using several technological developments, both hydrological and nonhydrological. Thus a prior knowledge of hydrological analysis and modelling, of network design techniques, of telecommunications and remote-sensing systems, of on-line and off-line computer use, etc., is necessary if the activity of hydrological forecast is to be exercised successfully and efficiently.