Abstract
Gap-phase replacement is a general phenomenon found in forest ecosystems, worldwide. Different tree species can be expected to produce different sizes of gaps when they die. Species also vary in their regeneration success in gaps of different sizes. In this paper, the gap-phase interactions among tree species in a forest stand are simulated by a role-type stand model called ROPE. By incorporation of environmental effects on tree height, ROPE can simulate forest composition and stand leaf area under different climate conditions. The model was developed for forest ecosystems in northeastern China and was used to simulate the forest landscape structures under current climate conditions and under four climate change scenarios for greenhouse gas related warming. These scenarios were obtained from general circulation models developed by different atmospheric research centers. Korean pine-broadleaf mixed forest and larch forest are the major stand types in the study area under present conditions. Under the four climate change scenarios, Korean pine-broadleaf mixed forest would be expected to occur only on the higher parts of large mountains. Larch forest only would be found north of the study area. Broadleaf forest would become the dominant vegetation over the study area. Use of the Kappa statistic to test for similarity in spatial maps, indicates that each climate change scenario would result in a significant change of forest distributions.
Article Footnote
* Supported by The United States National Science Foundation Grant BSR-8702333 to University of Virginia.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Bartlein,P J,Prentice,I C&Webb,T III 1986 Climatic response surfaces from pollen data for some eastern North American taxa J Biogeogr 13:35–57
Botkin, D.B., Janak, J.F. & Wallis, I.R. 1972. Rationale, limitations, and assumptions of a northeastern forest growth simulator. IBM J. Res. Devel. 16: 101–116.
Budyko, M.I. 1974. Climate and life. Academic Press, New York. China’s Vegetation Editing Committee 1980. China’s vegetation. Scientific Publishing House of China. (in Chinese).
Davis, M.B. 1989. Lags in vegetation response to greenhouse warm¬ing. Clim. Change 15: 75–82.
Emanuel,W.R.,Shugart,H.H.&Stevenson,M.P.1985.Climatic change and the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes.Clim. Change 7:29–43
Hansen, J., Fung, I., Rind, D., Russell, G., Lebedeff, S., Reudy, R.& Stone, P. 1988. Global climatic changes as forecast by the GISS-3-D model. J. Geophys. Res. 93: 9341–9364.
Holdridge, L.R. 1967. Life zone ecology. Rev. ed. Tropical Science Center, San Jose, Costa Rica.
Leemans, R. & Cramer, W.P. 1991. The IIASA database for mean monthly values of temperature, precipitation and cloudiness on a global terrestrial grid. Research Report RR-91–18. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenbueg, Austria, 61 pp.
Malanson, G.P. 1993. Comment on modeling ecological response to climatic change. Clim. Change 23: 95–109.
Manabe,S.&Wetherald,R.T.1987.Large scale changes in soil wetness induced by an increase in carbon dioxide.J.Atm.Sci.44:1211–1235
Mather, J.R. & Yoshioka, G.A. 1968. The role of climate in the distribution of vegetation. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 58: 29–41.
Mitchell, J.F.B. 1983. The seasonal response of a general circulation model to changes in CO2 and sea temperature. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 109: 113–152.
Monserud, R.A. & Leemans, R. 1992. Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecol. Modelling 62: 275–293.
Neilson, R.P., King, G.A. & Koerper, G. 1992. Toward a rule-based biome model. Landsc. Ecol. 7: 27–43.
Overpeck, J.T., Bartlein, P.J. & Webb, T.III 1991. Potential mag¬nitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: comparisons with the past. Science 254: 692–695.
Parton, W.J., Schimel, D.S., Cole, C.V. & Ojima, D.S. 1987. Anal¬ysis of factors controlling organic matter levels in Great Plains Grasslands. Soil Science Soc. Amer. J. 51: 1173–1179.
Prentice,C,Cramer,W,Harrison,S.P,Leemans,R,Monserud,R.A.&Solomon,A.M.1992 A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate J Biogeogr 19 117–134
Running, S.W. & Coughlan, J.C. 1988. A general model of forest ecosystem processes for regional applications, I. Hydrologic bal¬ance, canopy gas exchange and primary production processes. Ecol. Modell. 42: 125–154.
Schlesinger, M. & Zhao, Z. 1988. Seasonal climatic changes induced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the OSU atmospheric GCMlmixed layer ocean model. Oregon St. U., Corvallis, OR, Climate Research Institute.
Schneider, S.H., Mearns, L. & Gleick, P.H. 1992. Climate-change scenarios for impact assessment. in Peters, R.L., and Lovejoy, T. (eds), Global warming and biological diversity, Yale University Press, New Haven, pp. 39–55.
Schwartz, M.W. 1992. Modelling effects of habitat fragmentation on the ability of trees to respond to climatic warming. Biod. and Cons. 2: 51–61.
Shoo, G. 1991. Moisture-therm indices and optimum-growth model¬ing for the main species in Korean pine-deciduous mixed forests. Scientia Silvae Sinicae 21: 21–27. (in Chinese, English abstract)
Shao, G., Schall, P. & Weishampel, J.F. 1994. Dynamic simulations of mixed broadleaved-Pinus koraiensis forests in the Changbais¬han Biosphere Reserve of China. For. Eco. Manage. 70: 169–181.
Shugart, H.H. 1984. A theory of forest dynamics. New York: Springer-Verlag. Shugart, H.H. 1990. Using ecosystem models to assess the potential consequences of global climatic change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 5: 303–307.
Shugart, H.H., Leemans, R. & Bonan, G.B. 1993. A system analysis of the global boreal forests. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Shugart, H.H. & Prentice, I.C.1993. Individual-tree-based models of forest dynamics and their application in global change research. in Shugart, H.H., Leemans, R., and Bonan, G.B. (eds), A Systems Analysis of the global Boreal Forest, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 313–333.
Shugart, H.H., Smith, T.M. & Post, W.M. 1992. The potential for application of individual-based simulation models for assessing the effects of global change. Anna. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 23: 15–38.
Shugart, H.H. & West, D.C. 1977. Development of an Appalachian deciduous forest model and its faplication to assessment of the impact to the Chestnut Blight. J. Environm. Managern. 5: 161–179.
Smith, T.M., Leemans, R. & Shugart, H.H. 1992. Sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to CO2-induced climate change: comparison of four scenarios based on general circulation models. Clim. Change 21: 367–384.
Smith, T.M. & Urban, D.L. 1988. Scale and resolution of forest structural pattern. Vegetatio 74: 143–150.
Stephenson, N.L. 1990. Climate control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. Am. Natur. 135: 649–670.
Thompson, R.S. & Bartlein, P.J. 1991. Modern vegetation/climate relationships, changes in plant distributions and paleoclimatic estimates in the western United States. Bull. Ecol. Soc. America 72(2): 267.
Thornthwaite, C.W. 1948. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr. Rev. 38: 55–94. Whittaker, R.H. 1975. Communities and ecosystems. 2nd ed. Macmillan, New York.
Woodward, F.I. 1987. Climate and plant distribution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1995 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Shao, G., Shugart, H., Smith, T. (1995). A role-type model (rope) and its application in assessing climate change impacts on forest landscapes. In: Hirose, T., Walker, B.H. (eds) Global change and terrestrial ecosystems in monsoon Asia. Tasks for Vegetation Science, vol 33. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0343-5_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0343-5_13
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-4152-2
Online ISBN: 978-94-011-0343-5
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive