Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Long-Term Climate Monitoring by the Global Climate Observing System pp 143–174Cite as

Regional Climate Changes as Simulated in Time-Slice Experiments

  • Chapter

  • 85 Accesses

Abstract

Three 30 year long simulations have been performed with a T42 atmosphere model, in which the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice distribution have been taken from a transient climate change experiment with a T21 global coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In this so-called time-slice experiment, the SST values (and the greenhouse gas concentration) were taken at present time CO2 level, at the time of CO2 doubling and tripling.

The annual cycle of temperature and precipitation has been studied over the IPCC regions and has been compared with observations. Additionally the combination of temperature and precipitation change has been analysed. Further parameters investigated include the difference between daily minimum and maximum temperature, the rainfall intensity and the length of droughts.

While the regional simulation of the annual cycle of the near surface temperature is quite realistic with deviations rarely exceeding 3 K, the precipitation is reproduced to a much smaller degree of accuracy.

The changes in temperature at the time of CO2 doubling amount to only 30–40% of those at the 3 * CO2 level and show hardly any seasonal variation, contrary to the 3 * CO2 experiment. The comparatively small response to the CO2 doubling can be attributed to the cold-start of the simulation, from which the SST has been extracted. The strong change in the seasonality cannot be explained by internal fluctuations and cold start alone, but has to be caused by feedback mechanisms. Due to the delay in warming caused by the transient experiment, from which the SST has been derived, the 3 * CO2 experiment can be compared to the CO2 doubling studies performed with mixed-layer models.

The precipitation change does not display a clear signal. However, an increase of the rain intensity and of longer dry periods is simulated in many regions of the globe.

The changes in these parameters as well as the combination of temperature- and precipitation change and the changes in the daily temperature range give valuable hints, in which regions observational studies should be intensified and under which aspects the observational data should be evaluated.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Dümenil, L., and Roeckner, E.: 1994, ‘The Hydrologie Cycle in the ECHAM3 Simulations of the Atmospheric Circulation’, in Desbois, M., Desalmond, E. (eds.), Global Precipitation and Climate Change, Vol. I, 26, 361–377.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Bardossy, A. and Plate, E. J.: 1992, ‘Space-Time Models for Daily Rainfall Using Atmospheric Circulation Pattern’, Water Resource Res. 28, 1247–1259.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Begntsson, L., Arpe, K., Roeckner, E., and Schulzweida, U.: 1994, Climate Predictability Experiments with a General Circulation Model, Report No. 145, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg, Germany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson, L., Botzet, M., and Esch, M.: 1994, Will Greenhouse Gas-Induced Warming over the Next 50 Years Lead to Higher Frequency and Greater Intensity of Hurricanes?, Report No. 139, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg, Germany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brinkop, S.: 1991, Inclusion of Cloud Processes in the ECHAM PBL Parameterization, Large Scale Atmospheric Modelling Rep. No. 9, 5–14, Met. Inst. Univ. Hamburg, Germany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bradzil, R., Budikova, M., Auer, I., Boehm, R., Cegnar, T., Fasko, P., Gajic-Capka, M., Koleva, E., Lapin, M., Niedzwiedz, T., Szalai, S., Ustrnul, Z., Weber, R. O., and Zaninovic, K.: 1995, ‘Trends of Maximum and Minimum Daily Temperatures in Central and Southeastern Europe -Natural Variability or Greenhouse Gas Signal?’, submitted to Int. J. Climatol.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bücher, A. and Dessens, J.: 1991, ‘Secular Trends of Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees’, J. Clim. 4, 859–868.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cao, H. X., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Lavery, J. R.: 1992, ‘Simulated Diurnal Range and Variablity of Surface Temperature in a Global Climate Model for Present and Doubled CO2 Climates’, J. Clim. 5, 920–943.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Claussen, M. and Esch, M.: 1992, BIOMES Computed from Simulated Climatologies, Report No. 89, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg, Germany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch, U.: 1985, ‘The Mean Response of the ECMWF Global Model to the El Nino Anomaly in Extended Range Prediction Experiments’ Atmosphere-Ocean 23, 43–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch, U., Hasselmann, K., Höck, H., Maier-Reimer, E., Mikolajewicz, U., Santer, B. D., and Sausen, R.: 1992, ‘Time-Dependent Greenhouse Warming Computations with a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model’, Clim. Dynam. 8, 55–69.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch, U., Santer, B.D., Hellbach, A., Hegerl, G.C., Höck, H., Maier-Reimer, E., Mikolajewicz, U., Stössel, A., and Voss, R.: 1994, ‘Monte Carlo Climate Change Forecasts with a Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model’, Clim. Dynam. 10, 1–19.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch, U., Hegerl, G., Hellbach, A., Höck, H., Mikolajewicz, U., Santer, B. D., and Voss, R.: 1995, ‘A Climate Change Simulation Starting 1935’, Clim. Dynam. 11, 71–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DKRZ: 1993, The ECHAM3 Atmospheric General Circulation Model, Techn. Rep. No. 6, DKRZ, Budensstr. 55, Hamburg, Germany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dümenil, L. and Todini, E.: 1992, ‘A Rainfall-Runoff Scheme for Use in the Hamburg GCM’, EGS Series on Hydrol. Sc. 1, 129–157.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fichefet, T. and Tricot, C.: 1992, ‘Influence of the Starting Date of Model Integration on Projections of Greenhouse-Gas Induced Cliamte Change’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1771–1774.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi, F. and Mearns, L.: 1991, ‘Approaches to the Simuylation of Regional Climate Change: A Review’, J. Geophys. Res. 29, 191–216.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleckler, P. J., Randall, D. A., Boer, G., Colmann, R., Dix, M., Galin, V., Helfand, M., Kiehl, J., Kitho, A., Lau, W., Liang, XZ., Lykossov. B., McAvaney, B., Miyakoda, L., and Planton, S.: 1994, ‘Cloud-Radiative Effects on Implied Oceanic Energy Transports as Simulated by Atmospheric General Circulation Models’, PCMDI Report No. 15, PCMDI/LLNL, Livermore, Ca., U.S.A.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Grotch, S. L. and McCracken, M. C.: 1991, ‘The Use of General Circulation Models to Predict Regional Climate Change’, J. Clim. 4,286–303.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J., Sato, M., and Ruedy, R.: 1994, ‘Long-Term Changes of Diurnal Temperature Cycle: Implications about Mechanisms of Global Climate Change’, in: Kukla, G. etal. (eds.), Asymmetric Change of Daily Temperature Range, DOE Conf-9309350.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hasselmann, K., Sausen, R., Maier-Reimer, E., and Voss, R.: 1992, ‘On the Cold Start Problem in Transient Simulations with Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models’, Clim. Dynam. 9, 53–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hense, A., Kerschgens, M., and Raschke, E.: 1982, ‘An Economical Method for Computing Radiative Transfer in Circulation Models’, Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 108, 231–252.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC: 1990, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Houghton, J., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 364 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC: 1992, Climate Change: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Houghton, J., Callendar, B. A., and Varney, S. K. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 198 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaas, E. and Frich, P.: 1994, ‘DTR and Cloud Cover over the Nordic Countries: Observed Trends and Estimates for the Future’, in Kukla, G. et al. (eds.), Asymmetric Change of Daily Temperature Range, DOE Conf-9309350.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T., Jones, P. D., Knight, R. W., Kukla, G., Plummer, N., Rzuvaev, V. N., Gallo, K. P., Lindesay, J., and Charlson, R. J.: 1993, ‘Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature’, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 74, 1007–1023.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T. R., Knight, R. W., and Plummer, N.: 1995, ‘Are Temperatures Becoming More Variable and Precipitation More Extreme’, Review Nature.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T. R., Wang, W.-C., Schlesinger, M. E., and Knight, R. W.: 1990, ‘A Method of Relating General Circulation Model Simulated Climate to the Observed Local Climate, Part I: Seasonal Statistics’, J. Clim. 3, 1053–1079.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kukla, G., Karl, T. R., and Riches, M. R. (eds.): 1994, Asymmetric Change of Daily Temperature, Proceedings of the MINIMAX workshop, College Park, Maryland, DOE report GCR, CONF-9309350.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lai, M., Cubasch, U., and Santer, B. D.: 1994, ‘Effect of Global Warming on Indian Monsoon Simulated with a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model’, Current Sc. 66,430– 48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Legates, D. R. and Willmott, C. J.: 1990a, ‘Mean Seasonal and Spatial Variability in Gauge Corrected Global Surface Air Temperature’, J. Climatol. 41, 11–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Legates, D. R. and Willmott, C. J.: 1990b, ‘Mean Seasonal and Spatial Variability in Gauge Corrected Global Precipitation’, J. Climatol. 10, 111–127.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lohmann, U., Sausen, R., Bengtsson, L., Cubasch, U., Perlwitz, J., and Roeckner, E.: 1993, ‘The Koppen Climate Classification as a Diagnostic Tool for General Circulation Models’, Clim. Res. 3, 177–193.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Louis, J. F.: 1979, ‘A Parametric Model of Vertical Eddy Fluxes in the Atmosphere’, Boundary Layer Meteorol. 17, 187–202.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahfouf, J. F., Cariolle, D., Royer, J.-F., Geleyn, J.-F., and Timbal, B.: 1994, ‘Responses of the Meteo-France Climate Model to Changes in CO2 and Sea Surface Temperature’, Clim. Dynam. 9, 345–362.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, M. J., Palmer, T. N., and Swinbank, R.: 1989, ‘Parameterization and Influence of Sub-Grid Scale Orography in General Circulation and Numerical Weather Prediction Models’, Met. Atm. Phys. 40, 84–109.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parey, S.: 1994, 2 * CO 2 and 3 * CO 2 Time Slice Experiments. Change in Mean and Variability -19th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society -Grenoble, April 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  • Perlwitz, J., Cubasch, U., and Roeckner, E.: 1994, Simulation of Greenhouse Warming with the ECHAM3 Model Using the Time-Slice Method, Report, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg, Germany, (in preparation).

    Google Scholar 

  • Plummer, N., Lin, Z., and Torok, S.: 1994, ‘Recent Changes in the Diurnal Temperature Range over Australia’, in: Kukla, G. et al. (eds), Asymmetric Change of Daily Temperature Range, DOE Conf-9309350.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner, E., Arpe, K, Bengtsson, L., Brinkop, S., Dümenil, L., Esch, M., Kirk, E., Lunkeit, F., Ponater, M., Rockel, B., Sausen, R., Schlese, U., Schubert, S., and Windelband, M.: 1992,Simulation of the Present-Day Climate with the ECHAM Model: Impact of Model Physics and Resolution, Report No. 93, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr. 55, Hamburg, Germany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rockel, B., Raschke, E., and Weynes, B.: 1991, ‘A Parameterization of Broad Band Radiative Transfer Properties of Water, Ice and Mixed Clouds’, Beitr. Phys. Atmos. 64, 1–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Santer, B. D., Cubasch, U., Mikolajewicz, U., and Hegerl, G.: 1993, The Use of General Circulation Models in Detection Climate Change Induced by Greenhouse Gases, PCMDI Report No. 10, PCMDI/LLNL, Livermore, Ca., U.S.A.

    Google Scholar 

  • Santer, B. D., Brüggemann, W., Cubasch, U., Hasselmann, K., Maier-Reimer, E., and Mikolajewicz, U.: 1994, ‘Signal-to-Noise Analysis of Time-Dependent Greenhouse Warming Experiments. Part 1: Pattern Analysis’, Clim. Dynam. 9, 267–285.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schlesinger, M. E. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1987, ‘Climate Model Simulations of the Equilibrium Response to Increased Carbon Dioxide’, Rev. Geophys. 25, 760–798.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiedtke, M.: 1989, ‘A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large-Scale Models’, Mo. Wea. Rev. 117, 1779–1800.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verdecchia, M., Visconti, G., Giorgi, F., and Marinucci, M. R.: 1994, ‘Diurnal Temperature Range for a Doubled Carbon Dioxide Concentration Experiment: Analysis of Possible Physical Mechanisms’, Geophys. Res. Let. 21, 1527–1530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • von Storch, H., Zorita, E., and Cubasch, U.: 1993, ‘Downscaling of Global Climate Change Estimates to Regional Scales: An Application to Iberian Rainfall in Wintertime’, J. Clim. 6, 1161–1171.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wever, R. O., Talkner, P., and Stefaniki, G.: 1994, ‘Asymmetric Diurnal Temperature Change in the Alpine Region’, Geophys. Res. Let. 21, 673–676.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whetton, P. H., Fowler, A. M., Haylock, M. R., and Pittock, A. B.: 1993, ‘Implications of Climate Change Due to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect on Floods and Droughts in Australia’, Clim. Change 25, 289–317.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wigley, T. M. L.,Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., and Smith, G.: 1990, ‘Obtaining Subgrid Scale Information from Corase-Resolution General Circulation Model Output’, J. Geophys. Res. 95, 1943–1953.(Received 25 January, 1995; in revised form 12 July, 1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmbH, Bundesstr. 55, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    U. Cubasch & J. Waszkewitz

  2. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstr. 55, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    G. Hegerl & J. Perlwitz

Authors
  1. U. Cubasch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. Waszkewitz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. G. Hegerl
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. J. Perlwitz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Room 120, Asheville, NC, 28801-5001, USA

    Thomas R. Karl

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1996 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Cubasch, U., Waszkewitz, J., Hegerl, G., Perlwitz, J. (1996). Regional Climate Changes as Simulated in Time-Slice Experiments. In: Karl, T.R. (eds) Long-Term Climate Monitoring by the Global Climate Observing System. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0323-7_10

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0323-7_10

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-4143-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-011-0323-7

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation