Natural resources and limits of food production in 2040

Abstract

Food demand is estimated for the 15 major regions of the world for the year 2040. It is compared with the potential food production in these regions, which is derived from the area with soils suitable for cropping and grazing, the amount of irrigation water available, and the farming system used. All farmers are assumed to employ the best known techniques for sustainable farming. Two alternative production systems are explored: optimum productivity per unit of land, with intensive use of chemical inputs and energy to produce top yields (‘HEI’), and agriculture in which environmental damage per unit area is minimised (‘LEI’). In the latter system, legumes provide all nitrogen, agriculture is more diverse, and hectare yields are lower. Farming could occur at a smaller scale than in HEI-f arming, with strong integration of arable farming and animal husbandry, but these aspects play no role in this study.

Comparing 2040 scenarios of demand and supply of food shows that most regions can avoid to run into food security problems, but that in Asia situations could develop where a moderate or affluent diet is out of reach of its population, even when maximum use is made of all natural resources.

When HEI-agriculture is practised, all regions can produce food required for an affluent diet, except for East, South and West Asia. Also Southeast Asia and West and North Africa come close to the lower limit. A diet much less expensive provides the only option for escape. The three regions with the least leeway will carry almost half of the global population. Europe, the former USSR, the American regions and Central Africa are well off and need only a part of the suitable land to feed their populations.

Practising LEI-agriculture, only South Asia will have food shortage. In this heavily populated region, there is no way out via less expensive diets or lower population growth (both already at a minimum). Europe could grow all its food on less than half of its suitable soils if the LEI system goes with the low food demand scenario. Only the former USSR, North and South America, Central Africa and Oceania can consider to offer its population an affluent diet.