Scenarios for land use in Europe: agro-ecological options within socio-economic boundaries

Abstract

An eco-regional approach to research is called for to address emerging problems related to regional food supply. In an eco-regional analysis information can be gathered on constraints to and possibilities for agriculture in its physical and socio-economic environment. This information can reveal ways to increase agricultural production while at the same time conserving the natural resource base.

In this paper attention is given to the methodology of exploring future possibilities for land based agriculture in the European Union. To that end future technical possibilities of primary production are confronted with a number of different objectives that are put to land based agriculture. The technical possibilities are derived from regional production potentials of different indicator crops that have been assessed with the aid of a crop growth simulation model. In an Interactive Multiple Goal Linear Programming (IMGLP) procedure four different scenarios of optimal land use are calculated, considering four distinct political priority settings.

The results of the study have been published in a report to the Government by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, an independent advisory body to the Dutch Government. In a public debate following the publication of the report, several different groups have discussed the usefulness of this type of analysis. The initial reaction to the study was somewhat reserved, because this type of exploration of the future gives rather different results than the more usual future studies that rely on extrapolated trends. However, in the discussions that followed the complementarity of both approaches has been accepted.