Abstract
In section 1 we discussed some general problems of forecasting. We brought out some methodological differences between a number of procedures, namely, prediction, projection, prognosis, and social systems prognostication. Now we proceed to use them. We shall begin by arguing deductively, making predictions of student numbers and educational expenditure in fourteen European countries and the USA. At various points, however, we shall supplement the purely deductive reasoning by introducing hypotheses which are inductively justified. In other words, we argue that certain presently available data are compatible with a particular hypothesis, i.e. that an inductive justification for its introduction exists (prognosis).
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References
Blot, D. and Debeauvais, M.: “Educational Expenditure in Developing Areas: Some Statistical Aspects,” in: OECD: Financing of Education for Economic Growth. Paris, 1966.
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More specifically with regard to educational forecasting and planning the argument is taken up by Naumann, J.: “An Attempt at Appraising Techniques for Assessing Manpower Needs.” Extended version of a paper given at the OECD conference “Manpower and Development,” Teheran, September 1969, forthcoming.
For further details of the expenditure statistics used, cf. the relevant notes and introductory remarks to the tables of the UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1967.
Cf. Schultz, T.: “Capital Formation by Education,” in Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 68, 6, 1960.
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Tinbergen’s discussion of the problem of long-range forecasting of GNP growth illustrates vividly our discussion of some common problems of all mathematico-statistical forecasting techniques. His criticism of the Kahn/Wiener method of alternative time trend extrapolations is followed by an extremely sceptical discussion of a statistically more sophisticated model by Van den Beld/Verdoorn. Tinbergen, J.: “Economic progress: a vision.” in The Future is Tomorrow. M. Nijhoff. The Hague, 1972.
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© 1972 Martinus Nijhoff, The Hague, Netherlands
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Jensen, S. (1972). Forecasts of Educational Expenditure in Fourteen European Countries and the United States. In: Possible Futures of European Education. Plan Europe 2000, Project 1: Educating Man for the 21st Century, vol 1. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-2375-7_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-2375-7_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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