Replies to Diane: Popper on Learning from Experience

Abstract

Sir Karl Popper has claimed repeatedly that different events are independent of each other in the sense of “independence” used in the theory of probability. That is to say, the probability of a conjunction of two different events is the product of their probabilities. From this it follows that the probability of any event given any set of different events is the same as it was prior to those events having been given. For example, the chance of the next swan being white is not affected by our having seen many swans before, all of which are white. Similarly, Sir Karl has insisted that the initial probability of any universal law is zero. From this it follows that the probability of any universal law is always zero, regardless of how much empirical evidence supports or backs it.¹