Abstract
I had originally intended to deal with the philosophy of modeling which underlies (Forrester, 1961, 1969, 1971b) and about ideas growing from various critiques (Oltmans, 1974; Forrester, Low and Mass, 1974) of these books. That talk would have been about the need for a more penetrating treatment of the philosophy and theory underlying simulation models, and such issues as aggregation, the use of data for establishing confidence in models, and the boundaries of models (Forrester, 1973). But I have been dissuaded from that subject by your program committee. Instead, a description has been requested of the model of social and economic change in the United States on which we are now working at MIT.
Revised and slightly edited version of a paper presented to the Summer Computer Simulation Conference, Houston, Texas (1974).
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References
Forrester, J. W.: 1961, Industrial Dynamics, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Forrester, J. W.: 1969, Urban Dynamics, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Forrester, J. W.: 1971a, Principles of Systems, Wright-Allen Press, Inc.
Forrester, J. W.: 1971b, World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press, Inc., Cambridge, Mass.
Forrester, J. W.: 1975, Collected Papers, Wright-Allen Press, Inc., Cambridge, Mass.
Forrester, J. W.: 1976, ‘Educational Implications of Responses to System Dynamics Models’, World Modeling: A Dialogue, TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, Vol. 2, North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, and American Elsevier Publishing Co., New York.
Forrester, J. W., Low, G. W., and Mass, N. J.: 1974, ‘The Debate on World Dynamics: A Response to Nordhaus’, Policy Science, Vol. 5, June.
Forrester, N. B.: 1973, The Life Cycle of Economic Development, Wright-Allen Press, Inc., Cambridge Mass.
Mass, N. J.: 1975, Economic Cycles: An Analysis of Underlying Causes, Wright-Allen Press, Inc., Cambridge, Mass.
Oltmans, W. L.: 1974, On Growth, G. P. Putnam’s Sons, New York.
Senge, P. M.: 1974, ‘An Evaluation of Generalized Least Squares Estimation’, System Dynamics Working Paper D-1944–6, December 6, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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© 1977 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht-Holland
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Forrester, J.W. (1977). Understanding Social and Economic Change in the United States. In: Hartnett, W.E. (eds) Systems: Approaches, Theories, Applications. Episteme, vol 3. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1239-3_6
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