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Scientific inference is thought to be hypothetical-deductive: from given facts or experimental findings we infer laws or theories from which the facts follow or which account for the facts. This is an oversimplification, though, for the facts or findings are seldom logical consequences of the explanatory theory, but merely ‘agree’ with the theory. Bayes’ rule then enters as a more general scheme of hypothetical deduction: from given facts, to infer the most plausible theory that affords those facts highest probability.
KeywordsMultinomial Model Information Matrix Sample Coverage Category Probability Linkage Parameter
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