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Modeling methane emissions from rice fields: variability, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis of processes involved

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Methane Emissions from Major Rice Ecosystems in Asia

Part of the book series: Developments in Plant and Soil Sciences ((DPSS,volume 91))

Abstract

Estimates of global methane (CH4) emissions, to which rice cropping systems contribute significantly, are uncertain. The variability and uncertainty of variables governing emission rates and the sensitivity of emissions to these variables determine the accuracy of CH4 emission estimates. A good tool for quantification of sensitivities is a process-based model. This paper describes a model that has been validated previously by experimental data. Variability and uncertainty in processes and variables underlying CH4 emissions are reviewed and the sensitivities of modeled CH4 emission estimates for process variables are tested. The sensitivity analysis is carried out for two sites in the Philippines at which CH4 emissions have been measured for several years. The sensitivities of the model are compared with measured sensitivities, both as a function of input parameters. The model sensitivity analysis shows that the system is not sensitive to mechanisms of CH4 , production or the pathway of gas transport through the plant. Methane emissions are very sensitive, however, to the description of substrate supply (both from the soil and from organic fertilizers). Unfortunately, this description also represents a main uncertainty. Uncertainty in CH4 emission estimates will thus remain large as long as this process is not well quantified.

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  1. P. M. van Bodegom

    Present address: Free University Amsterdam, Department of Systems Ecology, de Boelelaan, 1087, Netherlands

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Microbiology, Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK, Wageningen, Netherlands

    P. M. van Bodegom & A. J. M. Stams

  2. Laboratory of Theoretical Production Ecology, WUR, Netherlands

    P. M. van Bodegom & P. A. Leffelaar

  3. International Rice Research Institute, MCPO Box 3127, Makati City, 1271, Philippines

    R. Wassmann

  4. Fraunhofer Institute for Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany

    R. Wassmann

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  1. P. M. van Bodegom
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  2. P. A. Leffelaar
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  3. A. J. M. Stams
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  4. R. Wassmann
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Reiner Wassmann Rhoda S. Lantin Heinz-Ulrich Neue

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© 2000 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

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van Bodegom, P.M., Leffelaar, P.A., Stams, A.J.M., Wassmann, R. (2000). Modeling methane emissions from rice fields: variability, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis of processes involved. In: Wassmann, R., Lantin, R.S., Neue, HU. (eds) Methane Emissions from Major Rice Ecosystems in Asia. Developments in Plant and Soil Sciences, vol 91. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0898-3_18

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0898-3_18

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-3812-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-010-0898-3

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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