Abstract
This chapter is based on three years of research that started in 1996 and was undertaken as part of a European Union (EU) funded project concerned with Mediterranean desertification and land use. This project, known as MEDALUS III, consisted of a wide range of topics aiming to describe, analyse and model various aspects of climatic and environmental change at different spatial scales in the Mediterranean (MEDALUS III Final Report, 1999). One key objective of this work was to integrate socio-economics into physical models of agricultural land degradation. This task could have been tackled in various ways but the approach we adopted involved developing a prototype Synoptic Prediction System (SPS) to model relationships between climatic, physical and socio-economic variables in order to translate potential climate change scenarios into estimates of land degradation risk.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anderson, J., Hardy, E., Roach, J. and Witmer, R. (1976) A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data, Professional Paper 964, U.S. Geological Survey.
Belward, A. (ed.) (1996) The IGBP-DIS global 1 km land cover data set (DISCover)-proposal and implementation plans, Working Paper No 13, International Global Biosphere Program-Data Information Service, Toulouse, France.
Burrough, P., MacMillan, R. and van Deurson, W. (1992) Fuzzy classification methods for determining land suitability from soil profile observation and topography, Journal of Soil Science, 43: 193–210.
Carpenter, G., Gopal, S., Martens, S. and Woodcock, C. (1997) Evaluation of Mixture Estimation Methods for Vegetation Mapping, Technical Report CAS/CNS-97–014, Boston University Center for Adaptive Systems and Department of Cognitive and Neural Systems.
Clarke, J. and Rhind, D. (1991) Population Data and Global Environmental Change, International Social Science Council Programme on Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change, Working Group on Demographic Data.
Deichmann, U. and Eklundh, L. (1991) Global digital data-sets for land degradation studies: A GIS approach, United Nations Environment Programme, Global Resource Information Database.
Deichmann, U. (1996) A Review of Spatial Population Database Design and Modelling, United Nations Environment Programme, Global Resource Information Database, and Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research initiative on the Use of Geographic Information Systems in Agricultural Research.
de Koning, G., Veldkamp, A., Verburg, P., Kok, K. and Bergsma, A. (1997) CLUE: A tool for spatially explicit and scale sensitive exploration of land use changes, Working Paper, Wageningen Agricultural University, Wageningen.
Dickinson, R., Henderson-Sellers, A., Kenedy, P. and Wilson, M. (1986) Biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) for the NCAR community climate model: NCAR, Technical Note NCAR/TN275+STR, Boulder.
Eidenshink, J. and Faudeen, J. (1996) The 1-km AVHRR global land data-set: first stages in implementation, USGS, EROS Data Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Goodchild, M., Anselin, L. and Deichmann, U. (1993) A framework for the areal interpolation of socio-economic data, Environment and Planning A, 25: 383–397.
Harris, T. (1998) Regional land degradation indicators, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds.
Kirkby, M., Harris, T. and Abrahart, R. (1997) Regional Indicators, Project 3 Report, MEDALUS III.
MEDALUS III Final Report (1999) Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use, Report submitted to the European Commission on MEDALUS III 1996–1999.
Moody, A., Gopal, S. and Strahler, A. (1996) Artificial neural network response to mixed pixels in coarse-resolution satellite data, Remote Sensing Environment, 58: 329–343.
Olson, J. (1994a) Global ecosystem framework-definitions, USGS EROS Data Center Internal Report, Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Olson, J. (1994b) Global ecosystem framework-translation strategy, USGS EROS Data Center Internal Report, Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Openshaw, S. and Openshaw, C. (1997) Artificial Intelligence in Geography, Wiley, Chichester.
Openshaw, S. and Perrée, T. (1997) Methods for an intelligent continuous surface transformation of socioeconomic data for Europe, Extended Abstract for 1st International Conference on Geocomputation, September 1997, Leeds.
Openshaw, S. and Turner, A. (1998) Medalus III project 9.1: GIS based socio-economic modelling:; http://geog.leeds.ac.uk/staff/a.turner/projects/medalus3/home.htm.
Openshaw, S. and Turner, A. (2001) Disaggregative spatial interpolation, Paper presented at GISRUK April 2001, Glamorgan.
Palutikof, J. and Agnew, M. (1997) Statistical Downscaling of Model Data, MEDALUS III report from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
Ross, T. (1995) Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications, McGraw-Hill.
Sellers, P., Mintz, Y., Sud, Y. and Dalcher, A. (1986) A simple biosphere model (SiB) for use within general circulation models, Journal of Atmospheric Science, 43: 505–531.
Turner, A. (2000) Density Data Generation for Spatial Data Mining Applications, Paper presented at GeoComputation September 2000, Chatham.
Veldkamp, A. and Fresco, L. (1996) CLUE: a conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects, Ecological Modelling, 85: 253–270.
Veldkamp, A. and Fresco, L. (1997) Exploring land use scenarios, an alternative approach based on actual land use, Agricultural systems, 55(1): 1–17.
Verburg, P., de Koning, G., Kok, K., Veldkamp, A., Fresco, L. and Bouma, J. (1997) Quantifying the spatial structure of land-use change: an integrated approach, ITC Journal Special Issue: Geo-Information for Sustainable Land Management.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2001 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Openshaw, S., Turner, A. (2001). Forecasting Global Climatic Change Impacts on Mediterranean Agricultural Land Use in the Twenty First Century. In: Stillwell, J., Scholten, H. (eds) Land Use Simulation for Europe. The GeoJournal Library, vol 63. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0466-4_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0466-4_10
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-3895-9
Online ISBN: 978-94-010-0466-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive