Influence of the Anthropogenic Emissions and Atmospheric Chemical Processes on Climate in the XXI Century

  • Igor K. Larin
  • Anton A. Ugarov
Part of the NATO Science Series book series (NAIV, volume 16)


Using four scenarios of the emissions of greenhouse and other antropogenic gases for the period 2000 – 2100 developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the tropospheric content of these gases for the period has been calculated with the help of a one-dimensional mathematical model of the middle atmosphere and other approaches. Data for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3), chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) have been obtained. With help of the data obtained and literature data on the greenhouse gas concentrations and associated radiative forcing and the Earth’s surface temperature, total radiative forcing and temperature changes for 2000 – 21000 have been calculated for all the IPCC scenarios. In addition, the contributions of tropospheric and stratospheric chemical processes to the results obtained have been estimated.


Greenhouse Effect Ozone Depletion Stratospheric Ozone Tropospheric Ozone XXth Century 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Bekki S., K.S. Law, J.A. Pyle; Effect of ozone depletion on atmospheric CH4 and CO concentrat ions, Nature 371 (1994) 595–603. Bell J., P.Duffy, C.Covey, L.Sloan et al.; Comparison of temperature variability in observations and sixteen climate model simulations, Geophys. Res. Lell. 27 (2000) 261–264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Brenner S., S. Havlin, A. Bunde, H-J. Schellnhuber, R.B. Govindan, D. Vjushin; Long-range correlations and trends in globalclimate models: Comparison with real data, Phys. A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 294 (2001) 239–248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Eatheral A.; Modeling ckimate change impacts on ecosystems using linked models and a GIS, Clim. Change 35 (1997) 17–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1995), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Ed. by J. T. Houghton et al., Contribution of Working Group I, Cambridge University Press, 1996.Google Scholar
  5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000), Emissions Scenarios. Special Report of the Intergovernment al Panel on Climate Change. Ed. by Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, Cambridge University Press, UK, 2000.Google Scholar
  6. Jones P. D., M. New, D. E. Parker, S. Martin, I. G. Rigor; Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years, Rev. Geophys. 37 (1999) 173–199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Krol M.C., M van Weele; Implications of variations in photodissociation rates for global tropospheric chemistry, Atmos. Environ. 31 (1997) 1257–1273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Mann M.E., R.S. Bradley, M.K. Hughes; Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature 392 (1998) 779–787.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Mann M,E., R.S. Bradley, M.K. Hughes; Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (1999) 759–762.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Pollack H.N., Shaopeng Huang, and Po-Yu Shen; Climate Change Record in Susurface Temperatures: A Global Perspective. Science 282 (1998) 279–281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 1998), Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project — Report No44, Scieruific Assessment of Ozone Deplelion:1998. UNEP, U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, NASA, Geneva, Switzerland, 1998.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2002

Authors and Affiliations

  • Igor K. Larin
    • 1
  • Anton A. Ugarov
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Energy Problems of Chemical Physics of RASMoscowRussia

Personalised recommendations