Abstract
Using four scenarios of the emissions of greenhouse and other antropogenic gases for the period 2000 – 2100 developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the tropospheric content of these gases for the period has been calculated with the help of a one-dimensional mathematical model of the middle atmosphere and other approaches. Data for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3), chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) have been obtained. With help of the data obtained and literature data on the greenhouse gas concentrations and associated radiative forcing and the Earth’s surface temperature, total radiative forcing and temperature changes for 2000 – 21000 have been calculated for all the IPCC scenarios. In addition, the contributions of tropospheric and stratospheric chemical processes to the results obtained have been estimated.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Bekki S., K.S. Law, J.A. Pyle; Effect of ozone depletion on atmospheric CH4 and CO concentrat ions, Nature 371 (1994) 595–603. Bell J., P.Duffy, C.Covey, L.Sloan et al.; Comparison of temperature variability in observations and sixteen climate model simulations, Geophys. Res. Lell. 27 (2000) 261–264.
Brenner S., S. Havlin, A. Bunde, H-J. Schellnhuber, R.B. Govindan, D. Vjushin; Long-range correlations and trends in globalclimate models: Comparison with real data, Phys. A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 294 (2001) 239–248.
Eatheral A.; Modeling ckimate change impacts on ecosystems using linked models and a GIS, Clim. Change 35 (1997) 17–34.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1995), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Ed. by J. T. Houghton et al., Contribution of Working Group I, Cambridge University Press, 1996.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000), Emissions Scenarios. Special Report of the Intergovernment al Panel on Climate Change. Ed. by Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, Cambridge University Press, UK, 2000.
Jones P. D., M. New, D. E. Parker, S. Martin, I. G. Rigor; Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years, Rev. Geophys. 37 (1999) 173–199.
Krol M.C., M van Weele; Implications of variations in photodissociation rates for global tropospheric chemistry, Atmos. Environ. 31 (1997) 1257–1273.
Mann M.E., R.S. Bradley, M.K. Hughes; Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature 392 (1998) 779–787.
Mann M,E., R.S. Bradley, M.K. Hughes; Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (1999) 759–762.
Pollack H.N., Shaopeng Huang, and Po-Yu Shen; Climate Change Record in Susurface Temperatures: A Global Perspective. Science 282 (1998) 279–281.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 1998), Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project — Report No44, Scieruific Assessment of Ozone Deplelion:1998. UNEP, U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, NASA, Geneva, Switzerland, 1998.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Larin, I.K., Ugarov, A.A. (2002). Influence of the Anthropogenic Emissions and Atmospheric Chemical Processes on Climate in the XXI Century. In: Barnes, I. (eds) Global Atmospheric Change and its Impact on Regional Air Quality. NATO Science Series, vol 16. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0082-6_44
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0082-6_44
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-0959-4
Online ISBN: 978-94-010-0082-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive