Abstract
The integrated burn of fossil fuel, and the associated risk of global climatic change, can be minimized by economically efficient energy policies based on very efficient energy use and rapid deployment of appropriate renewable energy sources. Such policies can stabilize the rate of burning fossil fuel and gradually, over a half-century or so, reduce it to approximately zero. Economically and technically sophisticated recent studies in many industrialized countries have shown that it is cheaper, faster, and easier to increase national energy productivity by severalfold than to increase energy supply. If such studies are taken as an existence proof, a worldwide Western European material standard of living for 8 × 109 people could be maintained with today’s rate of world energy use (~8 TW) or less, even with unchanged lifestyles in the developed countries and complete industrialization of the developing countries. At these cost-effective levels of energy productivity, virtually all long-term energy needs can be met by appropriate renewable sources that are already available and that are significantly cheaper, faster, and otherwise more attractive than competing power stations and synthetic-fuel plants. Only major efficiency improvements and, secondarily, appropriate renewable sources can substantially change the timing of, or reduce the risk of, CO2 problems.
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Notes
A B Lovins, Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace, Harper & Row (NY), 1979,
A B Lovins, Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace Pelican (UK), 1977, pp 63–66.
A B Lovins, I.79 supplement to 20–21.XI.79 testimony on Federal subsidies to nuclear power, available from IPSEP, 124 Spear St, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA, (415) 495–5210.
F Krause, “Energieversorgung der Bundesrepublik ohne Kernenergie und Erdöl”, Öko-Institut (Schönauerstr 3, 7800 Freiburg i Br), XII.79; see details in “Wirtschaftswachstum bei sinkendem Energieverbrauch”, id, 1980; summarized Soft En Notes 2:82–5 (1979).
A B Lovins, “Re-Examining the Nature of the ECE Energy Problem”, ECE(XXXIII)/2.I.G., UN Economic Commission for Europe (Geneva), I.78, reprinted En Policy 7:178–198 (IX.79).
A B Lovins, “Is Nuclear Power Necessary?”, Friends of the Earth Ltd (9 Poland St, London W1V 30G, UK), V.79, £1.50.
For suggestions on methodology, see D Brooks & S Casey, Alternatives 8(3/4): 10–23 (Summer/Fall 1979), Trent U (Peterborough, Ont K9J 7B8, Canada).
J Nørgård, Husholdninger og Energi, DEMO Projekt (Fysisk Lab. III, Danmarks Tekniske Højskole, 2800 Lyngby) and Polyteknisk Forlag (København), 1979.
Miljörörelsens Alternative Energiplan (MALTE), “Huvudrapport och Bilagor”, 3 vols, 1977 (Box 24023, 40022 Göteborg).
See also T B Johansson & P Steen, “Solar Sweden”, Secretariat for Future Studies (Fack, 10310 Stockholm), 1978.
E.g., both the 77- and 96-q CONAES scenarios assumed that US houses built in 2010 would be less heat-tight than the average Swedish house is today: L Schipper & A Lichtenberg, Science 194:1001–13 (1976), a classic study of technical coefficients.
Demand & Conservation Panel of the Committee on Nuclear & Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES), Science 200:142–152 (1978).
P G Schipper & E J Tuininga, Annex 6 to J Saint-Geours et al, “In Favour of an Energy-Efficient Society”, EEC (Brussels), 1979.
P Craig et al, eds, Distributed Energy Systems in California’s Future: Interim Report, HCP/P7405-01 and -02, ‘78, from DOE (9).
A B Lovins, 3d Regents’ Lecture, V.78, from IPSEP (3).
D B Brooks et al, “Some Scenarios of Energy Demand in Canada to the Year 2025”, reprinted at 1718–1801 in US Senate, Small Business & Interior Comms, Alternative Long-Range Energy Strategies: Additional Appendixes, Int Comm 94–47/92–137, USGPO, 1977.
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R Sant, “The Least-Cost Energy Strategy”, Energy Productivity Ctr, Mellon Inst (Suite 1200, 1925 N Lynn St, Arlington, VA 22209), 1979. Sant has perhaps the best data base on costs.
Procs Sask Conf on Low En Passive Solar Housing (X.79), summ. in Soft En Notes no 9 (1980); Low Energy Passive Solar Housing Techniques, U Sask Div of External & Community Relns (Saskatoon S7N OWO), 1979;
A B Lovins, Soft En Notes 2:16–18 (1979);
A H Rosenfeld et al, LBL-8912, Lawrence Berkeley Lab (Berkeley, CA), 1980; Project 2020, How to Build a Superinsulated House, Cold Weather Edition (Box 81961, College, AK 99708), 1979, $3;
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Procs, A H Rosenfeld et al & R Korda lap. Rosenfeld et al, & Korda, op cit (25); Soft En Notes 2:10–3 (1979); numerous reports of Swedish Bldg Res Counc (Stockholm) on exterior retrofit insulation; M Ross & R H Williams, “Drilling for Oil and Gas in Our Buildings”, PU/CEES 87, Ctr for Envtl Studies, Princeton U (Princeton, NJ 08540), VII.79.
W Murgatroyd & B C Wilkins, Energy 1:337–345 (1976). The FRG Fichtner-Studie draws similar conclusions but then ignores them.
J Nørgård Husholdninger og Energi, DEMO Projekt (Fysisk Lab. III, Danmarks Tekniske Højskole, 2800 Lyngby) and Polyteknisk Forlag (København), 1979 lap. (14), Ch 13, summarized in En Policy 7:43–56 (III.79).
R U Ayres & N Narkus-Kramer, 76-WA/TS-4, ASME, 1976.
A Okagaki & J Benson, County Energy Plan Guidebook, Inst for Ecological Policies (9208 Christopher St, Fairfax, VA), 1979.
B Sørensen, “A Renewable Energy System for Scandinavia”, paper to Rome conf (8); Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen, 1979.
A B Lovins & critics, The Energy Controversy: Soft Path Questions & Answers, FOE (124 Spear, San Francisco 94105), 1979.
D Hayes, “Energy for Development: Third World Options”, paper 15, Worldwatch Inst (1776 Mass Ave NW, Wash DC 20036), 1977.
A Makhijani & A Poole, Energy and Agriculture in the Third World, Ballinger (Cambridge MA), 1975; A Makhijani, “Energy Policy for the Rural Third World”, IIED (10), 80p, 1976.
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Soft En Notes 2:89–90 (XII.79).
J W Howe, Energy for the Villages of Africa, Overseas Development Council (Washington DC), 1977;
N L Brown & J W Howe, Science 199:651–7 (1978).
J W Tatom (4070 Ridge Rd, Smyrna, GA 30080) has published reports on low-technology pyrolyzers for Senegal, Ghana, and Indonesia. They seem highly effective.
A K N Reddy (Indian Inst of Science, 560012 Bangalore).
Soft En Notes 1:10–12, 45–6, 81–3 (1978), 2:80–1 (1979). The 9 million figure is from Peking Rev XII.78, cited by T B Taylor.
K Butti & J Perlin, A Golden Thread: 2500 Years of Solar Architecture & Technology, Cheshire/Van Nostrand Reinhold (NY), 1980.
A B Lovins, Envir Conserv 3(1):3-14 & USS (22) 1450–1461.
W Bach et al, eds, Man’s Impact on Climate, Elsevier (Amsterdam), 1979. Umberto Columbo provided a 15-TW scenario in 1979 as part of his critical review of the IIASA Energy Project.
M Ross & R H Williams, “Energy & Economic Growth”, US Congress Joint Ec Comm (Energy Subcomm), 1977.
Am Inst of Physics Conf Proc 25, Efficient Use of Energy, 1975, AIP (NY). This concept reflects only the process-independent energy needed for a change of state, not the opportunity to redefine initial or final states to provide the same function.
E.g. W Harman, An Incomplete Guide to the Future, Stanford [U] Alumni Assn, 1976; see also polls in USS (22), 2186–2196.
Science Council of Canada, Canada as a Conserver Society, 1977.
H Daly, Steady-State Economics, W H Freeman (San Francisco), ‘78.
A B Lovins, Openpit Mining, 1973, from FOE (35).
P F Chapman, Metals & Materials 107–111, II.74.
NAS/NRC, Resources and Man, W H Freeman (San Francisco), 1969.
Including improved product longevity and low-entropy design to facilitate repair, recycling, and remanufacture—which should all reduce total energy needs. See Ayres & Narkus-Kramer (30); T V Long II & L Schipper, LBL-5986 (25), 1977; P F Chapman, Metals and Materials 311–319, VI.74; D Hayes, “Repairs, Reuse, Recycling”, paper 23, Worldwatch Inst (1776 Mass Ave NW, Wash DC 20036), lap. (39), 1978.
D Brooks, “Minerals: an Expanding or a Dwindling Resource?”, Energy Mines & Resources Canada (Ottawa), 1973.
P G Kihlstedt, Scand J Metall 4:145–9 (1975).
H H Kellogg, “Conservation & Metallurgical Process Design”, 13th Wernher Mem Lect, Inst Min Metall (London), 1977.
R U Ayres, “Substitution Possibilities & Problems in Regard to the Major Metals”, TAD/RD/ENV/R.7, UNCTAD/UNEP, Geneva, 1974.
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and see generally V K Smith, ed, Scarcity & Growth Reconsidered, RFF/Johns Hopkins U Press (Baltimore/London), 1979.
See A B Lovins, Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace, Harper & Row (NY), 1979, lap. Lovins (1), Ch 4.
A B Lovins, “Electric Utility Investments: Excelsior or Confetti?”, III.79 E F Hutton paper, from IPSEP (3). Note also that if long-run price elasticity of demand >l, as it may be, then revenue elasticity <0: higher prices (entailed by higher marginal costs) reduce revenue (population and income held constant).
A B Lovins, Annu Rev En 3:477–517 (1978) & Soft En Notes no 5.
A B Lovins, Annu Rev En (1), Ch 5.
M F Cantley, Options ‘79:3, IIASA (Laxenburg), 4–5; J F Fisher (GE), “Optimum Size of Subcritical Fossil Fueled Electric Generating Units”, in The Scale in Production Systems, IIASA, in press, 1980; A Ford & T Flaim, LA-8033-MS, Los Alamos Sci Lab, X.79; C Komanoff, “Escalation in Capital Costs of Nuclear & Coal-Fired Plants”, submitted to Science, I.80; see also (72).
If indeed it ever was (48).
H Tsuchiya, “From Energy Hunting Civilization To Energy Cultivating Civilization”, Res Inst for Systs Technol (Tokyo), 1979; A B Lovins, preface to Japanese edn of (1), Jiji (Tokyo), 1979.
B Sørensen (34), “Global Energy Policy & Develt Strategy”, 1979.
Olivier (21) calculates 0.4 kW despite per capita increases on 1976 UK levels of 47% in car travel, 71% in inland freight, 382% in international air travel, etc.
T B Taylor (Dept of Aerospace & Mech Scis, Princeton U (26)), Prospects for Worldwide Use of Solar Energy, report to Rockefeller Fndn (NY), 1979, unpublished.
E Kahn, Annu Rev En 4:313–352 (1979).
Procs 1st New England Site-Built Solar Collector Conf, Mech Eng Dept, Worcester (MA) Polytechnic Inst, 1978.
A B Lovins, Soft En Notes 2:16–18 (1979) & Sol Age 4(5):21, 24.
M Grenon at 42 in W Häfele et al, 2d Status Rpt on the IIASA Project on Energy Systems 1975, IIASA (Laxenburg), & 4 (F3).
J M Weingart, “The Helios Strategy”, IIASA, 8.II.78.
E.g. in the solar heat/nuclear heat-pump comparison (A B Lovins, Science 201:1077–8 (1978),
A B Lovins, Science lap 204:124–9 (1979)): low nuclear costs, baseload = average price, peak COP = 2.5, high fixed charge rate, no cash-flow differences or differential escalation, no cheap solar designs (passive, integrated, pond, neighborhood, simple).
R Stobaugh & D Yergin, eds, Energy Future, Random House (NY), ‘79.
See e.g. Soft En Notes 2:51 (1979) and the reversal of priorities in the 1978–81 Swedish R&D budget ((6), note 75).
See A B Lovins, Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace, Harper & Row (NY), 1979 lap. (1) generally.
L Gerlach, “Energy Wars & Social Change”, Dept of Anthropology, U Minn (Minneapolis 55455), 1979;
A B Lovins, “Democracy & the Energy Mobilization Board”, 1979, from IPSEP (3).
See M Schachter, DOE/PE-0013, VII.79; CEP study of Long Island (summarized in Soft En Notes no 9, 1980); “Employment Impact of the Solar Transition”, US Congress Joint Ec Comm, 6.IV.79.
A B Lovins, “Energy, National Security, & Resilience”, in preparation for submission to CEQ (Washington DC) IV.81.
J P Holdren, in (20), 2:1–63, plus ‘79 critique of Inhaber study.
See (1), Ch 11, and Lovins, Foreign Affairs VII.80, in prep.
A B Lovins, 45 Geo Wash L Rev 911–943 (1977) & (22) 1417–49.
Justice (British Section, Intl Commission of Jurists), “Plutonium and Liberty”, London, 1978.
A B Lovins, World Energy Strategies, FOE/Ballinger, ‘77, 49–50.
IEA, Economic & Environmental Impacts of a U.S. Nuclear Moratorium 1985–2010, MIT Press, 1979, at 59 (T3–1), 264–5, 271.
V Taylor, “The Easy Path Energy Plan”, UCS (1208 Mass Ave, Cambridge, MA 02138), 1979.
E N Lorenz, Tellus 77:321–3 (1965), Meterol Monog 8(30):1–3 (68).
P Junger, 27 Case Western Reserve L Rev 3–335 (1976).
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Lovins, A.B. (1980). Economically Efficient Energy Futures. In: Bach, W., Pankrath, J., Williams, J. (eds) Interactions of Energy and Climate. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-9111-8_1
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