Projections of Solar Energy Utilization: A Guide to Federal Planning

Abstract

The Metrek Division of The MITRE Corporation was funded by the United States Energy Research and Development Administration (now the Department of Energy) to perform a comparative analysis of the likely utilizations of solar energy and to use this analysis to develop recommendations for planning the research, development, and commercialization of solar energy. To this end, Metrek has developed an energy data base, a set of scenarios of likely trends in demand and energy prices, and a computer simulation model. The energy data base contains engineering cost data on conventional and solar technologies based on the development of comparable generic system designs derived from a synthesis of the latest available information. The National Energy Plan, as proposed in April 1977, was used as the baseline scenario for the analysis. Projections of solar energy utilization were made by computer simulations of regional market decisions to use solar or conventional technologies in each market sector on a year-by-year basis.

This article is based on MITRE Corporation reports, particularly Solar Energy: A Comparative Analysis to the Year 2020 and A System for Projecting the Utilization of Renewable Resources, that were coauthored by Paul Curto, Grant Miller, Kathy K. Rebibo, Peter Spewak, Rick Vitray, and Gerald E. Bennington. The original work was funded by ERDA Contract No. E-(4918)-2322. The ongoing work is sponsored by Contract No. EM-78-01-5147 with DOE. Thanks also go to S. L. Schwartz for her help in preparing the paper for this volume.