Modeling U.S. Coal Supply and Demand

Abstract

Recent studies have indicated that world oil production is likely to peak during the next twenty-five years, and nations may turn to coal as a major alternative fuel. In assessing the outlook for coal, we must carefully analyze the economics of mining, transporting, and burning coal; as well as political, social, and environmental implications. One effort to better understand the interplay of these forces is the Energy Modeling Forum study entitled, “Coal in Transition: 1980 to 2000.” In this project, a group of energy modelers conducted a comparative analysis of how various mathematical models treat the major forces affecting the outlook for coal supply and demand in the United States. It was designed to highlight the policy implications of alternative coal supply/demand scenarios. It produced important insights on regional coal production patterns, transport flows, and the requirements for coal infrastructure development in response to differing economic and policy assumptions. This paper summarizes the major findings of this study.