Rational Expectation and Simplicity
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Induction is implicit as a crucial constituent in all scientific inference. A vindication is proposed which argues that only inductively based predictions are rational because they may succeed while any alternatively-based prediction is irrational because it must involve an arbitrary decision and is thus no better than a guess.
Accepting a predicting rule which is more complex than necessary to cover known facts, involves an arbitrary choice. Thus, a simplicity requirement must be written into the specification of induction as vindicated. This meets a number of problems that have beset induction.
KeywordsRational Expectation Inductive Method Arbitrary Choice Arbitrary Decision Past Success
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