Rational Expectation and Simplicity

  • F. John Clendinnen
Part of the Australasian Studies in History and Philosophy of Science book series (AUST, volume 1)


Induction is implicit as a crucial constituent in all scientific inference. A vindication is proposed which argues that only inductively based predictions are rational because they may succeed while any alternatively-based prediction is irrational because it must involve an arbitrary decision and is thus no better than a guess.

Accepting a predicting rule which is more complex than necessary to cover known facts, involves an arbitrary choice. Thus, a simplicity requirement must be written into the specification of induction as vindicated. This meets a number of problems that have beset induction.


Rational Expectation Inductive Method Arbitrary Choice Arbitrary Decision Past Success 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© D. Reidel Publishing Company 1982

Authors and Affiliations

  • F. John Clendinnen
    • 1
  1. 1.University of MelbourneAustralia

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