Introduction to Modelling and Prediction

Abstract

In the classic view of the scientific method, modelling and prediction are steps in the validation and adjustment procedure following the primary formulation of a hypothesis. In the past, even simple hypotheses concerning pathways in the water cycle were not directly testable. This was so because the sheer complexity of the system rendered even the simplest of models impossible to construct and test, by virtue of the daunting computations involved. Thus, the advent of the electronic computer revolutionized the ability of the meteorologist and hydrologist to study complex processes, not only in promoting models as a means of testing hypotheses, but also in suggesting ever more realistic formulations of the controlling processes within the atmospheric and terrestrial phases of the hydrological cycle.