Abstract
Predictions of developments in diseases and health care are fun to make, if only for the retrospective pleasure spectators derive when they prove wrong, as with Aneurin Bevan’s famous forecast that expenditure on health care would fall as the British welfare state improved health generally. Demand for health care services is apparently insatiable, but there are signs that containment of money spent will be practised in the future even in wealthy economies. It is necessary to estimate changes so that finite resources may be used to best advantage. In the absence of a time machine to transmit information back from the 21st century we must base our expectations on the current position and the recent past. Over the last 15 years striking developments in gallstone disease have been the advent of ultrasonography, the introduction of treatments without the need for formal laparotomy, and the better evaluation of the natural history of gallstones. Stimulated by these there has been a more critical approach to the overall requirement for a surgical approach to gallbladder disease, interestingly coupled with policies of much earlier surgery, both in acute cholecystitis and in gallstone-associated pancreatitis. What will be the pattern of gallstone disease and how will patients be cared for in the year 2000 and after? This chapter will succeed if it stimulates thought, though it will take some time to know how much of the informed speculation will prove to be on target.
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Bateson, M.C. (1986). Future Trends. In: Bateson, M.C. (eds) Gallstone Disease and its Management. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4173-1_9
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